PTA Leads Gains, Acrylonitrile Falls: The Deep Logic Behind Widening Price Divergence in Textile Raw Materials

In the second week of July 2026, the price landscape for textile commodities presented an unusual divergence. PTA surged 2.25% week-on-week, reaching 5,910 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%. Acrylonitrile, however, led the decline with a 4.20% drop, falling to 9,133 yuan per ton. This bipolar pattern is not mere market sentiment but a concentrated reflection of cost transmission mechanisms and supply-demand mismatches across the supply chain.

Raw Material Side: PTA Strength Driven by Cost and Capacity Squeeze

PTA's rise is not isolated. China Customs data show that the average import price of PX rose about 18% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, pushing up production costs for PTA plants. More critically, industry data indicate that domestic PTA social inventory has fallen for five consecutive weeks, and maintenance schedules at major plants have further tightened spot supply. PTA jumped from 5,780 yuan/ton at the start of the week to 5,910 yuan/ton by the weekend, an impressive gain for a traditionally slow season.

Polyester staple fiber (PSF) followed suit with a 0.95% weekly increase to 7,332 yuan/ton. PSF and PTA share the same cost chain; higher PTA costs directly compress PSF processing margins, strengthening mills' resolve to hold prices. In contrast, the polyester filament sector performed poorly: FDY fell 1.68%, DTY dropped 1.28%, and POY declined 0.77%. The core reason is the ongoing decline in downstream weaving utilization rates—comprehensive water-jet loom utilization in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has fallen below 65%, with greige fabric inventories forcing mills to reduce raw material purchases.

Cotton vs. Man-Made Fibers: One Holds Steady, One Collapses

Cotton yarn performed relatively well. 32S cotton yarn rose 0.61% to 24,875 yuan/ton, 21S cotton yarn edged up 0.28%, while raw cotton fell 0.92% to 17,706 yuan/ton. The divergence—cotton yarn rising while raw cotton falls—indicates that processing margins for cotton mills are recovering. Weather conditions in Xinjiang are normal, and the new cotton crop looks promising. On the demand side, downstream knitting and weaving orders have recovered about 3%–5% month-on-month since June, providing moderate support for cotton yarn prices.

Acrylonitrile's 4.20% weekly decline was the worst performer. The price collapse stems from two forces: falling upstream propylene prices, which eroded cost support, and the concentrated release of new domestic acrylonitrile capacity in Q2, with supply growth far exceeding downstream demand. Industry data show that acrylonitrile operating rates exceeded 85% in June, while downstream acrylic fiber mills ran at only about 60%. This supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to reverse in the short term.

Viscose and Rayon: Quiet but Brewing Change

Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices remained flat this week at 14,200 yuan/ton and 17,925 yuan/ton, respectively. On the surface, the market is calm, but beneath lies tension. Dissolving pulp prices have risen recently, squeezing the cash flow margins of viscose mills close to breakeven. If costs continue to climb, viscose producers will likely initiate production cuts to support prices. Rayon yarn prices are flat, but downstream dyeing and finishing mills report a month-on-month decline in orders, and inventory pressure is beginning to transmit upstream.

Spandex also held at 29,666 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.09%. The high price of spandex has persisted for nearly a year. To control costs, downstream weavers are accelerating formula adjustments to reduce spandex content, replacing it with high-elastic polyester filaments or mechanical elastic structures. Once this substitution reaches scale, it will structurally suppress spandex demand.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Polyester filament prices still have room to fall. Purchase on a need-to-order basis and avoid building large inventories before the peak season. PTA is strong in the short term but chasing highs carries risk; monitor the cost retreat window after PX maintenance ends in August. - Cotton yarn prices are at a cyclical low, and processing margins are improving. If you have orders for autumn/winter goods, consider locking in some 32S and 21S cotton yarn volumes before the end of July to hedge against a potential cotton price rebound in August. - Acrylonitrile's downtrend is not over. For acrylic fiber buyers, adopt a "small batches, frequent orders" strategy and wait for bottom signals before committing to long-term contracts.

For Factories - Polyester filament mills should prioritize destocking FDY and DTY inventories through price promotions to accelerate cash recovery, avoiding passive inventory buildup during the utilization downturn. - Viscose mills must closely monitor dissolving pulp prices. If costs break above 14,500 yuan/ton, proactively reduce operating rates by 20%–30% to support the price floor. - Cotton spinning mills can moderately increase the production ratio of 32S and 40S combed yarns, as processing margins for these grades are better than for regular 21S yarn, and demand from branded end-users for high-count yarn remains stable.