On July 10, 2026, the textile bulk commodity market sent a noteworthy signal: among 15 monitored items, 12 prices were flat, only 3 fell, and none rose. This pattern of 'mostly flat, few declining' is not calm but a stalemate between upstream and downstream. On the decline list, cotton led with -0.98%, followed by polyester staple fiber (-0.82%) and PTA (-0.79%). The average daily change was -0.15%, small in absolute terms but revealing growing divergence.
Cotton Decline: Pre-harvest Pressure Test
Cotton fell nearly 1% in a single day, from 17,881.83 yuan/ton to 17,706.00 yuan/ton, though still up 16.48% year-on-year. This moderate decline reflects bearish expectations for the upcoming new cotton harvest season. Cotton yarn prices remained stable, with 21S at 23,466.67 yuan/ton and 32S at 24,875.00 yuan/ton, up about 7% YoY. This suggests spinning margins are squeezed by falling raw materials and weak downstream orders. For cotton textile enterprises, inventory management needs fine-tuning—holding too much high-cost cotton risks depreciation, while waiting too long may miss low-price restocking opportunities.
Synthetic Fiber: Cost Support vs. Weak Demand
Unlike cotton, all synthetic fiber items—polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY), nylon series (DTY, FDY, POY), viscose, and spandex—remained flat. PTA's decline of -0.79% is notable: its YoY gain of 21.80% is the highest among monitored items, but the daily drop suggests upward momentum is fading. Polyester staple fiber fell 0.82%, with a 9.43% YoY increase. The stability of synthetic fibers is not due to strong demand but to cost support from crude oil hovering around $80/barrel. If oil adjusts downward, synthetic prices may face catch-up declines.
YoY Data Reveals Industry Temperature
YoY, raw materials show a pattern of 'strong synthetics, mixed cotton, weak silk'. PTA (+21.80%), spandex (+21.09%), and polyester POY (+16.05%) lead gains, driven by oil and chemical costs. Cotton rose 16.48% YoY but recently turned weak. Raw silk plunged 10.07% YoY, the only negative YoY change, reflecting persistently weak silk consumption. Silkworm areas in Guangxi and Sichuan may face further purchase price pressure. Acrylonitrile rose 15.61% YoY, warranting attention for cost pass-through to acrylic and carbon fiber chains.
Implications for Procurement and Exports
Current divergence demands smarter procurement. Cotton declines may persist until the new crop season (September-October); buyers should replenish in batches. Synthetic fibers, though stable, require monitoring oil trends; if WTI breaks below $75/barrel, consider locking forward prices. For exporters, the yuan at 7.2-7.3 per dollar, combined with raw material divergence, requires product-level costing, especially for silk and cotton goods facing pricing pressure.