On July 10, 2026, textile commodity prices showed a structural correction. According to monitored data, only 3 of 16 tracked products declined, but the drops were concentrated in cotton and chemical fiber raw materials: cotton fell 0.98%, polyester staple fiber dropped 0.82%, and PTA decreased 0.79%. The other 13 products remained flat, with the overall daily average change at -0.15%. This divergence reflects a mismatch between upstream raw material supply and downstream order demand.
Background
This price decline is not a broad deflation but a targeted weakening within a limited scope. Cotton prices fell from 17,881.83 yuan/ton to 17,706.00 yuan/ton, still up 16.48% year-on-year, but the short-term correction has hit recent highs. PTA and polyester staple fiber dropped to 5,910.50 yuan/ton and 7,332.23 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year gains of 21.80% and 9.43%, signaling a loosening of earlier uptrends.
Notably, cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices remained flat at 23,466.67 yuan/ton and 24,875.00 yuan/ton, with year-on-year increases of 7.81% and 7.22%. This means downstream weaving mills have not followed the raw material decline, widening the spread between cotton and cotton yarn. For textile enterprises, this signals both expanding profit margins and rising inventory cost risks.
Industry Impact
From a supply chain perspective, raw material price softening directly affects midstream weaving and trading links. The simultaneous decline of cotton and polyester staple fiber means cost bases for both cotton and chemical fiber mainstream fabrics are shifting downward. However, the stability of cotton yarn prices suggests weaving mills are not yet fully activated by price signals, possibly due to wait-and-see attitudes or insufficient orders.
In the chemical fiber segment, PTA, as the core raw material for polyester filament and staple fiber, provides weakening cost support for products like polyester POY, DTY, and FDY. Although these products did not change on the day, their year-on-year gains of 16.05%, 10.38%, and 14.98% leave room for catch-up declines if PTA continues to fall. Spandex prices were flat at 29,666.67 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.09%, indicating high-price rigidity.
For export-oriented companies, lower raw material costs theoretically enhance export competitiveness. However, with global textile demand in a weak recovery phase, sustained raw material price declines may prompt traders to delay procurement, further suppressing order momentum. Raw silk prices have fallen 10.07% year-on-year, reflecting continued pressure on silk exports.