June data from textile and apparel specialized markets reveals a mixed picture: overall sentiment slightly improved, but merchant profitability remains under pressure. According to the latest monitoring by the China National Textile and Apparel Council's Circulation Branch, the manager sentiment index for June was 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month, while the merchant sentiment index was 50.07, up 0.34 percentage points. Although both indexes remain near the boom-bust line, the directional change merits attention.
Market Operations: Stable Aggregate, Structural Divergence
From the manager perspective, the total business volume index in June was flat compared to the previous month, the logistics shipment volume index edged up 0.64 percentage points, and the customer traffic index also rose by 0.64 percentage points. The store opening rate index increased by 0.32 percentage points month-on-month, and the rental index remained stable at 50.65. These indicators suggest that the physical operation fundamentals of specialized markets are slowly recovering, but no explosive growth has occurred.
Merchant-side data reveals a more complex picture. The sales volume index rebounded by 1.03 percentage points to 50.14, returning above the boom-bust line, but the average selling price index fell by 0.22 percentage points to 49.30. The profit index, though up 0.89 percentage points, still lingered in the contraction zone at 49.86. This implies that merchants are trading volume for price cuts, with actual profits not improving synchronously.
Costs and Inventories: Signals of Pressure Shift
Cost pressures are building. The comprehensive cost index fell by 0.19 percentage points to 50.63 in June. Although still above 50, the directional change is noteworthy. More directly, 6.99% of merchants reported increased operating costs, a sharp rise of 6.99 percentage points from the previous month. Meanwhile, the inventory index rose by 0.21 percentage points to 50.00, with 10.49% of merchants reporting reduced inventories, up 8.44 percentage points from May.
This combination of rising costs and falling inventories typically indicates that downstream demand is passively absorbing stockpiles, while rigid costs like raw materials or rent are eroding profit margins. For buyers, this may signal a window for price negotiation; for factories, it means a tough balance between order volumes and profit rates.
E-commerce Channel: Structural Bright Spot
In June, e-commerce sales were the only segment showing comprehensive improvement. The manager e-commerce sales index rose to 51.61, up 0.64 percentage points month-on-month; the merchant e-commerce sales index rose to 50.49, up 0.35 percentage points. Some 22.58% of specialized markets reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from May; 9.79% of merchants reported increased e-commerce sales, up 8.42 percentage points.
Online channels are increasingly penetrating traditional wholesale markets. For small and medium-sized merchants reliant on physical foot traffic, e-commerce growth has become an important hedge against fluctuations in store visits. However, online channels also imply lower gross margins and higher operational costs, which explains why sales volumes have recovered but profit indexes remain in contraction.
Confidence Indicators: Cautious Short-Term Outlook
Forecast indexes show divergence. Managers' expectations for the next period's sentiment index stood at 50.32, down 2.91 percentage points month-on-month; the next period's business environment index was 50.97, down 1.93 percentage points. Merchants were relatively more optimistic, with expectations for the next period's sentiment index at 50.84, up 0.70 percentage points, and the next period's business environment index also at 50.84, up 0.77 percentage points.
The decline in manager expectations may reflect a wait-and-see attitude toward the traditional July off-season; the rise in merchant expectations is more likely based on short-term momentum from June's sales improvement. Both indexes remain above 50, indicating that overall market confidence has not collapsed, but upside potential is limited.