Textile Raw Material Market Shows Divergence: Cotton Leads Decline, Chemical Fibers Remain Resilient

On July 10, 2026, China's textile raw material market showed clear divergence, with cotton, polyester staple fiber, and PTA declining while over a dozen other products—including raw silk, cotton yarn, viscose, spandex, polyester filament, and nylon—remained stable. According to public industry data, the average daily change for the textile sector was -0.15%, driven mainly by cotton (-0.98%), polyester staple fiber (-0.82%), and PTA (-0.79%).

Cotton Leads the Decline, Upstream Pressure Transmits Downstream

Cotton fell nearly 1% in a single day, the weakest performer among textile raw materials. Year-on-year, cotton is still 16.48% higher, indicating that earlier gains are being rapidly eroded. The decline reflects expectations of a global cotton supply increase in the new season, coupled with slower procurement by spinning mills. Although cotton yarn prices held steady, mills show little enthusiasm for restocking. For weaving and garment enterprises, falling cotton prices mean lower input costs—but only if order volumes support production.

Chemical Fiber Sector: Staple Fiber and PTA Under Pressure, Filament and Nylon Resilient

The simultaneous decline of polyester staple fiber and PTA is not isolated. PTA is the main raw material for polyester staple fiber, and while PTA is still up 21.80% year-on-year, the recent correction suggests a looser supply outlook for upstream PX. Polyester staple fiber's year-on-year gain of 9.43% is narrowing relative to PTA, indicating compressed margins for staple fiber producers. In contrast, polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) prices were flat, with year-on-year increases between 10% and 16%, reflecting a balanced supply-demand dynamic. Nylon series (DTY, FDY, POY) also remained stable, with year-on-year gains of 6% to 9%, supported by normal operating rates in downstream nylon weaving.

Cotton Yarn and Viscose: Prices Stagnant, Market in Wait-and-See Mode

Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were unchanged for two consecutive days, with year-on-year increases of 7.81% and 7.22%. The spread between cotton and cotton yarn suggests decent spinning margins, but if cotton continues to fall, cotton yarn prices face downside risk. Viscose staple fiber held at 14,200 yuan/ton, up 9.06% year-on-year; rayon yarn was flat at 17,925 yuan/ton, up 3.17%. The viscose chain's stability stems from support from dissolving pulp costs and steady deliveries of downstream rayon fabric orders. Spandex prices, up 21.09% year-on-year, have not risen further in recent days, indicating that elevated prices are curbing demand for some elastic fabrics.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - The window for lower cotton prices may extend until the new crop arrives; consider phased purchasing to lock in low costs. - With polyester staple fiber and PTA moving in tandem, watch for promotional offers from staple fiber mills to replenish inventory. - Cotton yarn prices remain relatively firm, but if cotton weakens further, a downward adjustment is likely; delay large-scale purchases for now.

For Exporters - Falling cotton prices will reduce raw material costs for cotton-based exports; use this opportunity to optimize quotations and compete for orders from Southeast Asia. - Stable polyester filament prices make it suitable for signing long-term contracts, avoiding履约 risks from raw material volatility. - Be mindful of the impact of high spandex prices on elastic fabric export quotes; negotiate price terms with clients as needed.