After a sluggish May, the sentiment index for China's specialized textile and apparel markets saw a modest rebound in June. Data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council shows the manager sentiment index reached 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month, while the merchant sentiment index rose to 50.07, a 0.34 percentage point increase. Although both indices recovered, the manager index remains below the 50-point boom-bust line, suggesting that overall market confidence is not yet firmly established.
Structural Divergence Beneath the Surface
Positive signals are evident in market operations. Among manager sub-indices, logistics shipment volume, foot traffic, and store opening rates all improved, with logistics and foot traffic indices each rising 0.64 points from the previous month. The store opening rate index also increased by 0.32 points to 49.35, indicating a slight reduction in vacancy rates. However, the total business volume index remained flat at 49.03, suggesting that increased foot traffic has not effectively translated into higher sales.
The divergence is more pronounced on the merchant side. The sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 points month-on-month, a positive sign. However, the profitability index stood at 49.86, and the average selling price index was only 49.30, both below the 50-point threshold. Notably, the average selling price index fell 0.22 points, while the comprehensive cost index also dropped 0.19 points, indicating that merchants are facing a "volume up, price down" dilemma, further squeezing profit margins.
E-commerce as the Sole Growth Engine
Among all sub-indices, e-commerce sales performance was the most outstanding. The manager e-commerce sales index was 51.61, up 0.64 points, and the merchant e-commerce sales index was 50.49, up 0.35 points. Both indices are stable above 50 and on an upward trend. Specifically, 22.58% of specialized markets reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from the previous month, while 9.79% of merchants saw growth, up 8.42 percentage points.
This data reveals a key trend: with traditional offline channels struggling to grow, online channels are becoming a primary lever for merchants to maintain sales volumes. For textile enterprises, this means that business strategies relying solely on physical foot traffic and traditional wholesale models are increasingly risky. Online operational capability is shifting from a "bonus item" to a "necessity."
Outlook and Industry Confidence
Despite mixed current data, market participants hold relatively optimistic expectations for July. The manager's forward-looking sentiment index is 50.32, and the merchant's forward-looking index is 50.84, both above 50. Merchant confidence is particularly strong, with their expectation for the future business environment rising 0.77 points month-on-month. This optimism may stem from seasonal factors—July typically marks the start of autumn/winter fabric procurement and preparation for e-commerce promotions.
However, the manager's forward-looking index fell 2.91 points from the previous month, possibly reflecting concerns about rental stability and the risk of tenant loss. With 93.55% of specialized markets keeping rents unchanged, the scope for rental increases is limited, and market operators are also under profitability pressure.