In June 2026, China's textile and apparel specialized market sentiment index showed divergent trends: the manager index rebounded to 49.78, while the merchant index rose above the boom-bust line to 50.07. On the surface, the market is recovering, but a deep dive into the data reveals that the average selling price index for merchants dropped 0.22 points to 49.30, and although the profit index rose month-on-month, it remains below 50, indicating continued pressure on terminal selling prices and shrinking profit margins.
Merchant Operations: Volume Up, Price Down, Costs Squeeze Profits
The merchant sales volume index rose 1.03 points to 50.14, returning to expansion territory, but the average selling price index has been below 50 for consecutive months, suggesting that the market relies on volume rather than price increases. More concerning, the profit index stood at 49.86, below the boom-bust line, while the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 points to 50.63, reflecting accumulating cost pressure. Industry data shows that 18.18% of merchants experienced sales declines, and 19.58% saw profit declines, both proportions higher than the previous month, indicating intensified terminal competition.
The inventory index rose 0.21 points to 50.00, implying a slight easing of inventory pressure, but this is more a result of active price cuts to destock rather than a substantive demand recovery. For textile factories, this means raw material procurement strategies need to be more cautious to avoid inventory build-up from fluctuating terminal orders.
Market Operations: Foot Traffic Recovers, Rents Stabilize
At the manager level, the logistics shipment index and foot traffic index both rose 0.64 points from the previous month, and the store opening rate index also edged up. 93.55% of specialized markets maintained stable rents, indicating a relatively stable operating environment. However, the business environment index fell 1.61 points to 51.94, suggesting that managers are becoming more cautious about short-term market prospects.
From the perspective of industrial clusters, major specialized markets such as Guangzhou Baima, Shandong Jimo, and Jiangsu Dieshiqiao saw improvements in foot traffic and logistics activity in June. However, merchants generally reported that orders are becoming more fragmented, with small-batch, fast-turnaround orders becoming the norm, making traditional bulk distribution models unsustainable. This means upstream fabric and yarn suppliers must enhance flexible production capabilities and rapid response mechanisms.
E-commerce Channel: Dual Indexes Rise, Becoming Growth Engine
The most notable highlight in June's data was e-commerce sales: the manager e-commerce sales index rose 0.64 points to 51.61, and the merchant e-commerce sales index rose 0.35 points to 50.49, both above the boom-bust line. 22.58% of specialized markets saw an increase in e-commerce sales, and the proportion of merchants with increased e-commerce sales rose by 8.42 percentage points. The e-commerce channel is transitioning from a "supplement" to a "mainstay," especially in summer light textile products and fast fashion categories.
For home textile and apparel foreign trade companies, this means that traditional offline wholesale channels are being diverted online. They must accelerate their presence in cross-border e-commerce and live-streaming e-commerce; otherwise, they risk losing orders.
Outlook: Divergent Confidence, Cautious Optimism
Forward-looking indexes show that managers' expectations for the next period fell 2.91 points to 50.32, and their business environment expectations also fell 1.93 points. In contrast, merchants' expectations for the next period rose 0.70 points to 50.84, and their business environment expectations rose 0.77 points. This divergence between managers and merchants indicates that while the bottom may have been reached, the recovery slope is likely to be shallow. The traditional off-season in the third quarter, combined with rising costs, means the profit inflection point for merchants has not yet arrived.