In the second week of July 2026, the textile raw material market showed an unusual divergence. PTA led with a 2.25% weekly gain, followed by polyester staple fiber (+0.95%) and cotton yarn 32S (+0.61%), while acrylonitrile plunged 4.20%, and polyester FDY and DTY fell over 1%. The overall sector averaged a 0.38% decline, with more losers than gainers, indicating that downstream demand has not fully recovered.
Cost Transmission Blockage
PTA's strong performance was mainly driven by upstream PX costs. Industry data shows that early July PX prices rose due to maintenance at some plants, directly boosting spot PTA. However, this increase did not smoothly pass through to downstream polyester filament yarns—FDY and DTY fell 1.68% and 1.28% respectively. This suggests that weaving mills are unwilling to accept higher-priced raw materials amid weak order intake.
Polyester staple fiber rose 0.95%, a relatively modest gain compared to PTA. Staple fiber is mainly used in nonwovens and fillings, where demand is relatively stable, but the limited rise also reflects cautious consumer sentiment. Cotton yarn 32S increased 0.61%, and 21S rose 0.28%, driven more by cotton cost support than by order volume.
Acrylonitrile's Sharp Drop and Regional Signals
Acrylonitrile fell 4.20% in a single week, far exceeding other declines. As the key raw material for acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber, its price collapse is linked to capacity releases in major production regions like Shandong and Jiangsu. In the first half of 2026, new acrylonitrile capacity came online, creating ample supply expectations. Meanwhile, weak demand for acrylic yarns pushed inventory pressure upstream.
This signal is significant for textile industrial clusters. Acrylic yarn hubs in Zhejiang and Fujian will benefit from lower raw material costs, but if final orders don't pick up, low prices could worsen losses. Acrylonitrile is still up 15.61% year-on-year, suggesting the current drop is more of a high-level correction than a trend reversal.
The Stagnation of Viscose and Spandex
Viscose staple fiber and spandex prices were flat this week, with year-on-year gains of 9.06% and 21.09% respectively. Spandex's high YoY increase but recent stagnation reflects slower purchasing by downstream fabric mills. Gray fabric inventories remain high in major spandex-consuming areas like Xiaoshan and Shaoxing, leading mills to buy hand-to-mouth rather than stockpile.
Viscose's stability is tied to steady dissolving pulp costs and lackluster rayon yarn demand. Rayon yarn prices were unchanged, up only 3.17% YoY, eroding its cost advantage over cotton and synthetics and challenging its market share.
Cotton's Anchor Role and Export Concerns
Cotton fell 0.92% this week, with a 16.48% YoY increase. The mild decline is linked to normal weather in Xinjiang and expectations of a larger new crop. More critically, uncertainty in export orders persists—US and European restrictions on Xinjiang cotton remain in place, pushing some brands to switch to Brazilian or US cotton, weighing on domestic prices.
Cotton yarn prices crept up but lagged cotton cost increases, squeezing spinners' margins. Operating rates in home textile and apparel clusters like Nantong and Foshan hover around 70%, with orders mainly short-term and small-lot, lacking large-volume support.
Profit Redistribution Along the Chain
This week's price divergence essentially reflects profit redistribution along the industrial chain. Upstream PX and PTA segments benefit from tight supply, midstream polyester filament and acrylic segments suffer from overcapacity, and downstream weaving and garment sectors face the dual squeeze of rising costs and stagnant orders.
For textile companies, the current strategy should focus on three points: first, closely monitor PTA and cotton price movements and use futures to lock in raw material costs; second, watch for bargain opportunities in sharply declining products like acrylonitrile, but assess the timing of downstream acrylic demand recovery; third, optimize product mix toward higher value-added and differentiated items to avoid price wars in commodity grades.