June is typically a pivotal month in the textile industry, marking the transition between slack and peak seasons. This year's business climate index, however, offers signals worth a deeper look.
According to the latest monitoring data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council (CNTAC), the national textile and apparel professional market manager climate index for June 2026 stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month. The merchant climate index reached 50.07, an increase of 0.34 percentage points. While neither figure represents a dramatic surge, both have shown a clear upward trend after hovering near the boom-bust line for several months.
Structural Divergence Behind the Recovery in Footfall and Logistics
Looking at sub-indicators, improvements in market operations are evident. Among manager indices, the logistics shipment volume index and the customer footfall index both rose by 0.64 percentage points to 49.03. The store opening rate index increased by 0.32 percentage points to 49.35. This indicates that actual visitor numbers and cargo turnover rates in June were noticeably faster than in May.
However, the real engine driving the overall index upward is not traditional offline transactions but e-commerce channels. The manager e-commerce sales index reached 51.61, up 0.64 percentage points month-on-month, while the merchant e-commerce sales index also climbed to 50.49. Both figures are higher than the overall climate index, suggesting that online sales have become the core stabilizer of the current market.
The Merchant Profit Dilemma: The Awkward Position of Rising Volume but Falling Prices
In contrast to the recovery in market operation indicators, the profit side for merchants continues to face pressure. June data shows that the merchant sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 percentage points month-on-month—one of the few positive signals. But the average selling price index fell 0.22 percentage points to 49.30. The profitability index, despite rising 0.89 percentage points, still recorded only 49.86, remaining below the boom-bust line.
Volume is growing, but prices are falling, squeezing profit margins from both sides. The deeper issue lies in the cost side: nearly 7% of merchants reported an increase in operating costs in June, and the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 percentage points to 50.63. Although the index remains above 50—meaning overall cost pressure is still within a controllable range—the marginal direction of change is not optimistic. On inventories, the inventory index rose 0.21 percentage points to 50.00, indicating that destocking has accelerated slightly, but the magnitude is limited.
Optimistic Expectations but Caution Needed for July Variables
Forward-looking indicators show that market sentiment is recovering. The manager expectation index for July stands at 50.32, while the merchant expectation index is higher at 50.84, with merchants' expectations for the July business environment rising 0.77 percentage points month-on-month. All four predictive indices are above 50, indicating that market operators generally believe the off-season effect will diminish further in July.
However, historical data shows that the June rebound has not always extended into July. With the merchant average selling price and profitability indices still below 50, if e-commerce growth slows in July or offline footfall fails to sustain, this round of repair may be a temporary fluctuation rather than a trend reversal.