In the second week of July 2026, the textile bulk commodity market showed an extreme divergence rarely seen in recent years. PTA led the rally with a 2.25% weekly gain, pushing its year-on-year increase to 21.80%, while acrylonitrile plunged 4.20%, and polyester FDY and DTY fell 1.68% and 1.28% respectively. The overall textile sector posted a weekly average change of -0.38%, indicating that industry sentiment has not yet rebounded in tandem.
Upstream Strength vs. Downstream Pressure
The sustained strength of PTA is directly linked to high crude oil and PX prices. Although polyester plant operating rates remain elevated, terminal weaving orders have not shown significant improvement, suggesting that the PTA rally is more cost-driven than demand-driven. For polyester filament yarn producers, the combination of high raw material costs and falling product prices is squeezing margins. FDY and DTY fell 1.68% and 1.28%, respectively, while POY also dropped 0.77%, rapidly compressing the profit space across the entire polyester filament chain.
The sharp decline in acrylonitrile is more alarming. Prices dropped from 9,533 yuan/ton to 9,133 yuan/ton in a single week, a fall of 4.20%. Acrylonitrile is primarily used in acrylic fiber and ABS resin, and this price anomaly reflects weak demand in the downstream acrylic fiber industry, as well as expectations of oversupply from new capacity additions. Such volatility in upstream raw materials often quickly transmits into the pricing of acrylic yarn and blended products.
Cotton vs. Chemical Fiber: A Shifting Balance
The cotton textile segment performed relatively steadily. Cotton yarn 32S and 21S rose 0.61% and 0.28%, respectively, while raw cotton prices edged down 0.92%. This pattern of falling raw material costs and rising yarn prices suggests that spinning mills are seeing some inventory relief, and that terminal orders are shifting toward higher-count, higher-density products. Notably, viscose staple fiber and spandex prices were flat for the week, but spandex's year-on-year increase of 21.09% indicates that its supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved, and its price resilience is still strong.
The divergence within the chemical fiber sector essentially reflects differences in bargaining power along the chain. PTA, backed by an oligopolistic market structure and cost support, can pass pressure downstream. Polyester filament and acrylonitrile, however, face intense competition and are forced to cut prices when demand weakens. For fabric buyers, this means that procurement windows for different raw materials will be significantly misaligned.
Implications for Procurement and Inventory Strategy
In the current market environment, textile companies need to look beyond individual price fluctuations and formulate procurement plans from the perspective of profit distribution across the chain. PTA's strength may persist, but the ability of downstream polyester products to follow price increases is limited, leading to a continued narrowing of the spread between polyester filament and PTA. Buyers should watch for opportunistic purchases of polyester filament when the spread is tight.
The rapid decline in acrylonitrile may trigger a revaluation of acrylic and blended products. For knitting mills using acrylic fiber, it is advisable to delay purchases in the short term and wait for signs of price stabilization. For cotton textile mills, raw cotton prices have found support around 17,800 yuan/ton, and cotton yarn prices are rising modestly, indicating a relatively healthy supply-demand balance in the cotton chain. A normal procurement pace can be maintained.