In early July 2026, the textile raw material market is no longer a one-way rally. Cotton lint fell 0.98% in a single day, with PTA and polyester staple fiber also weakening, while cotton yarn, rayon yarn, polyester filament, and all nylon grades remained flat. This structure of 'weak cotton, stable chemical fibers and yarns' is sending new signals along the industrial chain.
The Logic Behind Cotton's Pressure: Dual Squeeze from Inventory and Substitution
According to China Customs and industry public data, cotton lint was quoted at 17,706 yuan/mt on July 10, down about 176 yuan from the previous day. Year-on-year, cotton is still 16.48% higher, but the daily drop is one of the most significant in the past month. The reasons are twofold: domestic cotton commercial inventory remains relatively high, and good growth in major producing areas has strengthened expectations of loose supply later. Meanwhile, the substitution effect from chemical fibers continues to intensify. Although polyester staple fiber is also falling, its year-on-year increase of 9.43% is lower than cotton's, and its absolute price advantage is clear, prompting mills to increase the proportion of chemical fibers in their blending.
PTA and polyester staple fiber fell 0.79% and 0.82% respectively, reflecting weakened cost support from upstream raw materials. PX prices have recently weakened, combined with the restart of some PTA units, increasing supply-side pressure, which directly transmits to the downstream polyester sector. For staple fiber producers, this decline means processing margins may be compressed, but it also offers a lower raw material purchasing window for downstream yarn mills.
The Anomaly of Raw Silk: Independent Trend of High-End Raw Material
Among all flat products, raw silk is a noteworthy exception. Quoted at 425,700 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day, it is down 10.07% year-on-year, the only monitored product with a decline exceeding 10%. This is not a short-term fluctuation but a prolonged price correction. Raw silk's downstream is mainly high-end silk fabrics and apparel, which are more sensitive to the economic cycle. Currently, global demand for luxury and high-end clothing is slowing, and raw silk inventory is being digested slowly, with price pressure having an industrial background. For companies engaged in silk trade, attention should be paid to whether autumn/winter orders in the second half of the year can drive destocking.
Price Resilience of Chemical Fibers and Yarns: Cost Pass-Through and Order Support
In contrast to the decline in cotton, products such as polyester POY, DTY, FDY, and all nylon series, viscose staple fiber, and spandex all remained flat. Among them, spandex is up 21.09% year-on-year, polyester POY up 16.05%, and acrylonitrile up 15.61%. The 'resistance to decline' of these products is not accidental. Spandex is mainly used in sports and yoga elastic fabrics, with end demand driven by outdoor and sports consumption, maintaining high prosperity. Polyester filament benefits from stable delivery of summer home textile and apparel orders, with low factory inventory pressure. More importantly, upstream raw materials like PX and caprolactam are relatively stable, providing cost support for chemical fiber varieties. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S remained flat, up 7.81% and 7.22% year-on-year respectively, indicating that the spinning segment still has decent margins, but caution is needed against potential price catch-down if cotton continues to fall.
Market Signals for Purchasing and Foreign Trade
The current divergence pattern implies different operational logics for buyers and foreign trade companies.
For Purchasers - Cotton raw materials are weak in the short term; consider waiting for lower points to restock, but control inventory cycles to avoid missing a rapid rebound. - Polyester staple fiber and PTA are in a correction phase, suitable for phased locking of mid- to long-term order raw material costs, especially focusing on the price window before autumn/winter orders start in September-October. - Raw silk prices are significantly lower year-on-year; if your company has high-end silk orders, current prices offer some value, but assess the certainty of end orders and repayment risks.
For Foreign Trade Companies - When quoting export orders, chemical fiber products have high year-on-year increases (spandex +21%, polyester POY +16%); include raw material price linkage clauses in contracts to hedge against double erosion from exchange rates and raw material fluctuations. - Although cotton products are up year-on-year, the short-term downward trend is clear; foreign trade companies can push overseas customers for faster order confirmation to lock in relatively lower current costs. - Monitor demand changes for raw silk and silk fabrics in Southeast Asian markets; if local currency depreciation reduces purchasing power, adjust export market structure in advance.
Overall, in mid-July 2026, the textile raw material market is in a sideways consolidation phase, 'unable to rise further but not falling deeply.' The divergence among varieties precisely reflects the differentiated recovery of downstream demand. For all segments of the industrial chain, refined inventory management and flexible purchasing rhythms are more important than betting on one-sided market moves.