The June reading of the textile and garment professional market sentiment index sends a key signal: the overall market is stabilizing and recovering, but the profit recovery for frontline merchants has yet to catch up with the broader trend.
Market Side: Foot Traffic and Store Opening Rates Drive Index Up
According to the latest monitoring data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council (CNTAC), the national textile and garment professional market manager sentiment index stood at 49.78 in June 2026, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month; the merchant sentiment index was 50.07, up 0.34 percentage points. This marks a clear rebound after two months of persistent downturn. Among sub-indices for managers, logistics shipment volume, foot traffic, and store opening rates all rose by 0.32 to 0.64 percentage points, indicating that physical market operations are picking up. The rental index remained stable at 50.65, suggesting no widespread vacancy or price cuts in market properties, and supply-demand dynamics are stabilizing.
Notably, the manager business environment index fell 1.61 percentage points to 51.94, reflecting cautious short-term judgment from market operators about the overall business climate. This may be linked to sluggish recovery in end-consumer confidence and uncertainty over upstream raw material price fluctuations.
Merchant Side: Volume Up, Prices Down, Profit Indicators Still Under Pressure
Data at the merchant level reveals a more complex reality. The sales volume index rose to 50.14, up 1.03 percentage points from the previous month, indicating increased transaction volumes. However, the average selling price index was only 49.30, down 0.22 percentage points and below the boom-bust line. This suggests merchants are trading volume for price, cutting prices to drive sales. The profitability index rose 0.89 percentage points but remained in contraction territory at 49.86, meaning most merchants' profit margins did not improve in tandem with sales.
In terms of proportions, 18.18% of merchants reported declining sales, up 7.22 percentage points from the previous month; 19.58% reported declining profits, up 8.62 percentage points. Cost pressures are also rising: the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 percentage points, and 6.99% of merchants reported increased operating costs, a sharp rise of nearly 7 percentage points. The inventory index rose to 50.00, indicating faster destocking but not yet full relief.
This 'volume up, profit thin' scenario is particularly severe for small and medium merchants. Against a backdrop of uneven recovery in end consumption, price promotions have become the primary short-term tool for maintaining cash flow, but in the long run, they may weaken the industry's overall pricing power and brand value.
E-commerce Channel: Steady Growth as a Structural Support
E-commerce sales performed notably well in the June data. The manager e-commerce sales index was 51.61, up 0.64 percentage points month-on-month; the merchant e-commerce sales index was 50.49, up 0.35 percentage points. In proportional terms, 22.58% of professional market managers reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points; 9.79% of merchants reported increased e-commerce sales, up 8.42 percentage points.
The sustained growth of e-commerce channels is reshaping the traffic structure of traditional professional markets. For merchants dependent on offline wholesale, online channels are not just a hedge against declining foot traffic but also a key tool for expanding customer bases beyond their regions and improving turnover efficiency. This is especially true for fabric and home textile categories, where online display and remote sampling are gradually replacing some traditional transaction steps.
Forward-looking Indices: Optimistic Confidence for July
Despite current profit pressures, both managers and merchants hold positive expectations for July. The manager forward sentiment index was 50.32, and the forward business environment index was 50.97; the merchant forward sentiment index was 50.84, and the forward business environment index was also 50.84. All four forward-looking indices are above the 50 boom-bust line, indicating that all segments of the supply chain are looking forward to the upcoming autumn/winter stocking season.
However, caution is warranted: the manager forward sentiment index fell 2.91 percentage points month-on-month, suggesting lingering doubts among market operators about the sustainability of the short-term rebound. If end-consumer demand does not materialize as expected in July, further price-cutting pressure on merchants may propagate upstream to weaving and dyeing sectors, squeezing their margins.