PTA posted a weekly gain of 2.25% and a year-on-year increase of over 21%, making it the standout performer in the textile commodity market during the second week of July 2026. However, acrylonitrile plunged 4.2% weekly, while polyester filament yarns weakened across the board, with polyester FDY and DTY falling 1.68% and 1.28% respectively. This mixed performance among upstream raw materials and broad pressure on intermediate products signals a structural adjustment underway in the textile industry chain.
Cost Transmission Breaks Down
PTA's strength is not an isolated phenomenon. Public data shows PTA prices rose from 5,780.66 yuan/ton at the start of the week to 5,910.50 yuan/ton by the weekend, a clear weekly increase. This reflects both the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations and the enhanced bargaining power of PTA producers due to rising industry concentration. However, the price increase has not been smoothly passed down to downstream polyester filament yarns and yarns. Polyester FDY fell 1.68% weekly, polyester DTY dropped 1.28%, and polyester POY recorded a 0.77% decline. Although polyester staple fiber edged up 0.95%, the increase was far smaller than PTA's. This means profit margins in the polyester segment are being squeezed.
Cotton Spinning Relatively Resilient, Chemical Fiber Chain Under Pressure
Unlike the sharp divergence in the chemical fiber chain, cotton spinning varieties performed relatively steadily. Cotton yarn 32S rose slightly by 0.61%, cotton yarn 21S edged up 0.28%, and cotton lint fell 0.92%, with overall fluctuations limited. Viscose staple fiber and spandex prices remained flat, indicating a wait-and-see market. This divergence stems from the different pricing logics of cotton and chemical fiber raw materials. Cotton markets are more influenced by global supply-demand dynamics and policy expectations, while PTA, acrylonitrile, and similar varieties are highly correlated with the petrochemical industry cycle. The current pattern of a strong upstream but weak downstream in the petrochemical chain is directly related to the recovery of terminal textile orders falling short of expectations since June.
What Does the Sharp Drop in Acrylonitrile Signal?
Acrylonitrile recorded a weekly decline of 4.2%, dropping from 9,533.33 yuan/ton to 9,133.33 yuan/ton, making it the biggest loser this period. Although still up 15.61% year-on-year, the recent rapid decline warrants attention. Acrylonitrile is primarily used to produce acrylic fiber and ABS resin, and its price trend often leads changes in downstream textile market conditions. This decline may signal weakening demand for acrylic fiber and downstream textiles, or loosening upstream propylene raw material prices. Given that acrylonitrile and PTA are both downstream petrochemical products, their divergent trends indicate significant structural differentiation within the petrochemical chain itself.
Industry Profits Concentrate at the Top
This week, the textile sector recorded an average price change of -0.38%, with only four varieties rising and as many as nine falling. This pattern of more decliners than gainers, against the backdrop of PTA leading gains, is particularly striking. In fact, the concentration of the PTA industry has increased significantly in recent years, with the top five companies accounting for over 70% of production capacity. This oligopolistic structure gives PTA producers an advantage in price negotiations, enabling them to pass cost pressures downstream. In contrast, the polyester filament yarn and nylon segments have numerous players with intense competition and weaker bargaining power. When raw material prices rise, these companies often have to compress their own margins to maintain market share.
Uncertainty in Export Markets
Looking at year-on-year data, most varieties still have prices higher than a year ago. PTA is up 21.8% year-on-year, spandex up 21.09%, polyester POY up 16.05%, and cotton lint up 16.48%. However, high prices do not equate to high profits, especially for export-oriented textile companies. Overseas markets have limited acceptance of price increases. Current factors such as RMB exchange rate fluctuations, high inventory levels in major export markets, and trade policy uncertainties are constraining China's textile and apparel export volumes. The core contradiction facing many foreign trade enterprises is high raw material costs combined with difficulty raising terminal prices.
Short-Term Outlook
Looking ahead to late July and August, PTA prices are likely to remain high and volatile, but room for further upside is limited. Polyester filament yarn prices are expected to continue under pressure, with companies possibly reducing production to alleviate inventory pressure. On the cotton spinning front, new cotton harvest expectations and reserve cotton release policies will be key price variables. For acrylonitrile, the trend will depend on changes in operating rates of the downstream acrylic fiber industry. Overall, the textile industry is in a phase of intensifying competition between raw material and finished product segments, and the redistribution of industry profits is far from over.