On July 10, 2026, the textile bulk commodity market showed a rare 'bull-bear standoff': among 17 monitored varieties, 14 remained flat while only 3 fell, but all three declines exceeded 0.7%. Cotton led the decline with a 0.98% drop, followed by PTA and polyester staple fiber. Behind this data lies a microcosm of the tug-of-war between upstream raw material cost pass-through and downstream procurement pace.
Price Divergence: Cotton Under Pressure, Chemical Fibers Stable
Cotton, the biggest decliner, fell from 17,881.83 yuan/ton to 17,706.00 yuan/ton, losing over 175 yuan in a single day. Despite a year-on-year increase of 16.48%, short-term downward pressure is evident. PTA and polyester staple fiber fell 0.79% and 0.82% respectively, with PTA at 5,910.50 yuan/ton and polyester staple fiber at 7,332.23 yuan/ton. Notably, PTA's year-on-year increase of 21.80% was among the highest of all varieties.
In contrast, 14 varieties including raw silk, acrylonitrile, cotton yarn 21S, cotton yarn 32S, polyester yarn, viscose staple fiber, spandex, rayon yarn, polyester POY, polyester DTY, polyester FDY, nylon DTY, nylon FDY, and nylon POY remained flat. Spandex posted a year-on-year increase of 21.09%, acrylonitrile 15.61%, and polyester POY 16.05%, highlighting the long-term price resilience of chemical fiber categories.
Industrial Chain Transmission: Weak Downstream Demand as Main Driver
From an industrial chain perspective, the decline in cotton and PTA is not isolated. Cotton, as a representative natural fiber, is highly sensitive to downstream mills' purchasing willingness. Although cotton yarn prices are up 7%-8% year-on-year, yarn companies face rising inventory pressure and insufficient new orders, leading to cautious raw material procurement. PTA, as the upstream of polyester, directly influences polyester staple fiber and filament. Polyester staple fiber fell 0.82% on the same day, almost in sync with PTA, reflecting rapid cost pass-through.
Why did chemical fiber finished products remain flat overall? The key lies in pricing mechanism differences. Polyester POY, DTY, and FDY have relatively larger processing margins, and leading companies have some pricing power, so short-term raw material declines do not necessarily trigger finished product price cuts. In contrast, the cotton textile chain is more fragmented, with more intense bargaining among cotton farmers, ginners, traders, and spinners, resulting in greater price elasticity.
Regional and Category Differences: Varying Reactions Across Industrial Clusters
From a regional perspective, the cotton price decline will directly affect expectations of ginners and farmers in Xinjiang and the Yellow River cotton regions. For cotton yarn enterprises in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu, lower raw material costs are positive for profit margins in the short term, but if end-order demand remains weak, they risk a passive situation of 'raw materials falling, yarn prices also falling.'
The flat chemical fiber prices reflect high capacity utilization in clusters like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan. Polyester filament companies have recently stabilized the market through a 'promotion + price support' strategy, with PTA cost declines partially converted into processing profits rather than fully passed downstream. For buyers, this means limited price negotiation room for chemical fiber fabrics, while pure cotton fabrics offer increasing bargaining flexibility.
Long-Term Trends from Year-on-Year Data
Despite significant single-day declines, year-on-year data better reflects the true market level. Except for raw silk, which fell 10.07% year-on-year, all 16 other varieties increased. PTA and spandex rose over 20%, while polyester POY, acrylonitrile, and cotton rose 15%-17%. This indicates current prices remain historically high, and the single-day decline is more a short-term correction than a trend reversal.
Raw silk is the only variety with a year-on-year decline of 10.07%, linked to weak global silk consumption and increased competition from substitute fibers. For silk fabric buyers, current prices are relatively low, potentially offering a window to lock in long-term orders.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Monitor cotton price trends: With significant single-day drops, consider delaying pure cotton fabric purchases until prices stabilize. - Limited negotiation room for chemical fiber fabrics: Polyester filament prices are flat, supported by processing margins, making near-term price cuts unlikely. Purchase as needed, avoiding stockpiling. - Consider increasing silk fabric positions: With raw silk down 10% year-on-year, prices are low, suitable for early stocking for next spring/summer orders.
For Foreign Trade Companies - Factor exchange rate and raw material linkage into export quotes: With RMB volatility and raw material price swings, use short-term fixed-price contracts to avoid long-term exposure. - Track PTA futures trends: PTA is a bellwether for the polyester chain, directly impacting Chinese chemical fiber fabric export costs. Regular monitoring is recommended. - Differentiated pricing strategies: For European and American clients, emphasize stable supply of chemical fiber fabrics; for Southeast Asian clients, highlight the price advantage of cotton products.
Overall, the July 10 price data signals market divergence: natural fibers face short-term pressure, while chemical fibers hold steady due to industrial chain integration. Buyers and foreign trade companies should adjust procurement pace and pricing strategies accordingly, seeking structural opportunities amid volatility.