The June 2026 sentiment index for textile and apparel professional markets sends a 'warm but not hot' signal to the industry. The manager sentiment index came in at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month; the merchant sentiment index stood at 50.07, up 0.34 percentage points. Although both core indicators improved from the previous month, the gains were modest, and the manager index remains below the 50-point boom-or-bust line, indicating that overall market confidence is recovering slowly and has not yet entered a full recovery channel.
Market Operations: Offline Metrics Recover, but Profit Transmission is Weak
On the manager side, positive changes emerged in market operations in June. The store-opening rate index rose 0.32 percentage points month-on-month, the footfall index increased by 0.64 percentage points, and the logistics dispatch volume index also recovered by 0.64 percentage points. The simultaneous improvement of these three indicators suggests that despite the traditional summer low season, the actual activity and transaction volume in professional markets did not cool significantly, instead showing signs of stabilization. In particular, the proportion of markets reporting declining footfall narrowed from 22.58% to 16.13%, indicating that more markets are emerging from the earlier trough.
However, feedback from the merchant side tells a different story. Although the sales volume index recovered to 50.14, entering expansion territory, the average selling price index fell 0.22 percentage points to 49.30, and the profit index, despite rising 0.89 percentage points month-on-month, remained in contraction territory at 49.86. This means that the dilemma of 'selling more but earning less' has not been fundamentally reversed—shipment volumes are increasing, but profit margins are being squeezed. More notably, 18.18% of merchants reported a decrease in total sales, up 7.22 percentage points from the previous month; 19.58% reported reduced profits, an increase of 8.62 percentage points. This indicates that the recovery is not evenly distributed, and some merchants are actually in a worse position.
Costs and Inventory: Hidden Pressures Are Building
Data on the cost side sounds a warning. In June, the composite cost index for merchants fell 0.19 percentage points to 50.63. Although still above the boom-or-bust line, the downward trend means cost pressures are increasing. Specifically, 6.99% of merchants reported higher operating costs, a sharp increase of 6.99 percentage points from the previous month—a clear signal from zero to presence. Combined with the persistently weak average selling price index, merchants' profit margins are being squeezed from both sides: upstream raw materials, rent, and labor costs are rising rigidly, while downstream prices cannot be raised simultaneously.
Inventory data shows a divergence. The inventory index rose 0.21 percentage points to 50.00, exactly on the boom-or-bust line, indicating that overall inventory pressure has eased slightly. 10.49% of merchants reported a decrease in inventory, up 8.44 percentage points from the previous month. This may be related to the gradual digestion of summer stock and proactive destocking by some merchants. However, if inventory reduction is accompanied by declining profits, it may mean that merchants are clearing inventory at the expense of profit rather than being driven by effective terminal demand.
E-commerce: From Supplementary Channel to Growth Engine
The most striking variable in this month's data comes from e-commerce sales. The manager e-commerce sales index rose 0.64 percentage points to 51.61, and the merchant e-commerce sales index rose 0.35 percentage points to 50.49, both stably in expansion territory. More importantly, 22.58% of professional markets reported an increase in e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from the previous month; 9.79% of merchants reported an increase, a proportion that expanded by 8.42 percentage points month-on-month. Although offline footfall is recovering, online channels are growing faster and penetrating more deeply, evolving from a 'supplementary channel' for traditional professional markets into a 'growth engine'.
This trend places new demands on the operating models of professional markets. The traditional business model relying on stall rent and wholesale footfall must accelerate its transformation to one driven by 'offline experience + online transactions + data-driven insights.' For merchants, the ability to master e-commerce operations is becoming a key differentiator in determining their sentiment divergence.
Outlook and Forecast: Confidence Remains, but Cautious Optimism is Needed
Despite the mixed signals from current indicators, the forecast indices from market participants send a positive note. Managers' forecast for July stands at 50.32, and merchants' forecast at 50.84, both above 50, with merchants' forecast up 0.70 percentage points month-on-month. This suggests that after bottoming out in the second quarter, merchants' expectations for the future have improved, especially their confidence in their own operating environment.
However, it must be noted that the manager forecast index fell by 2.91 percentage points month-on-month, indicating that market management is more cautious about the overall outlook. This divergence between 'merchant optimism and manager caution' reflects the differing perceptions of the recovery pace across different links in the supply chain.