Polyester Chain Divergence Intensifies, Acrylonitrile Leads Decline: Textile Raw Material Market Enters Bull-Bear Game

In the second week of July 2026, the textile raw material market delivered a mixed performance. PTA rose 2.25% week-on-week with a year-on-year gain of 21.80%, while acrylonitrile plunged 4.20% in a single week, and polyester FDY and DTY both fell over 1%. The overall average weekly change was -0.38%, with declining varieties outnumbering rising ones by more than two to one. Behind these figures lies a severe divergence in cost transmission efficiency across the supply chain and an uneven pace of end-demand recovery.

Upstream Strength Meets Midstream Weakness

PTA led the textile sector with a 2.25% weekly gain, closing at 5910.50 yuan per ton. This rally was supported by crude oil and PX costs, but the 21.80% year-on-year increase indicates that PTA has remained at elevated levels for the past year. However, this strength failed to pass through to downstream polyester products. Polyester staple fiber rose only 0.95%, while polyester POY, FDY, and DTY all declined by -0.77%, -1.68%, and -1.28% respectively. This "upstream up, midstream down" pattern suggests that supply-demand imbalances in the polyester filament sector are far more severe than cost-side pressures. For polyester filament producers, the widening gap between rising raw material costs and falling product prices is compressing margins, which explains why industry operating rates have struggled to improve recently.

Acrylonitrile: A Bearish Outlier Amid Supply Glut

Acrylonitrile posted the largest weekly decline at -4.20%, dropping from 9533.33 to 9133.33 yuan per ton. Despite a year-on-year gain of 15.61%, such a sharp weekly drop signals deteriorating fundamentals rather than short-term sentiment. Acrylonitrile is mainly used in acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber. The acrylic fiber market has been weak lately, compounded by new capacity coming online, leading to oversupply. For buyers in the acrylic and carbon fiber supply chains, the current price decline may warrant a wait-and-see approach until clearer bottom signals emerge.

Cotton and Viscose: Narrow Ranges Offer Stability

Compared with the volatility in chemical fibers, cotton and viscose products were relatively stable this week. Cotton yarn 32S edged up 0.61%, cotton yarn 21S rose 0.28%, while raw cotton dipped 0.92%. Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices were unchanged week-on-week. This narrow range reflects a fragile equilibrium in the cotton textile chain: upstream cotton prices are up 16.48% year-on-year, but cotton yarn prices have only risen 7%-8%, indicating squeezed margins in spinning. For apparel and home textile buyers, current cotton yarn prices are relatively high but stable, making just-in-time procurement advisable to avoid inventory risks. Raw silk fell 0.07% weekly and is down 10.07% year-on-year, one of the few declining varieties, underscoring persistently weak silk consumption.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Polyester filament (FDY/DTY) shows a clear downward trend; consider phased purchasing, focusing on PTA cost trends to identify bottom ranges. - Acrylonitrile's sharp decline suggests waiting until weekly drops narrow before restocking to avoid premature bottom-fishing. - Cotton yarn and viscose prices are stable; maintain normal procurement but monitor cotton price movements for future yarn pricing impacts.

For Exporters - For export orders, shorten the price lock period for volatile raw materials like PTA and polyester to 2-4 weeks to protect margins from sudden price rebounds. - Leverage falling acrylonitrile prices to reduce costs for acrylic products and adjust export quotes to gain orders. - Silk exporters can use the 10% year-on-year decline in raw silk prices as a pricing advantage, but must confirm whether overseas end-demand is recovering.