On July 10, 2026, the textile raw material market sent a nuanced signal: among the 16 tracked major varieties, 13 remained completely flat, while the only three declining varieties all came from the cotton and polyester sectors. Cotton fell 0.98% in a single day, polyester staple fiber dropped 0.82%, and PTA declined 0.79%. This pattern of 'most flat, few sharp declines' reveals far more about the true pressure distribution along the supply chain than a broad-based rally or sell-off would.
Cotton Leads Decline: A Concentrated Release of Supply-Demand Imbalance
Cotton prices fell from 17,881.83 yuan/ton to 17,706.00 yuan/ton. Although year-on-year growth remains high at 16.48%, the daily decline has already set a recent record. This means that accumulated inventory pressure is being released through price signals. Feedback from the Xinjiang cotton producing region indicates a stable to slightly increased planting area for the new season, while downstream spinning mill operating rates have not kept pace. Some small and medium-sized yarn mills have even begun actively destocking. Although cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices temporarily held steady at 23,466.67 yuan/ton and 24,875.00 yuan/ton respectively, year-on-year increases of over 7% have already put buyers on the sidelines.
More notably, the substitution effect between cotton and chemical fibers is being triggered. When cotton prices climbed from the 15,000 yuan/ton range at the beginning of the year to the current 17,706 yuan/ton, polyester staple fiber only rose from 6,700 yuan/ton to 7,332 yuan/ton, widening the price gap from 8,000 yuan to over 10,000 yuan. For cost-sensitive grey fabric and home textile enterprises, the economic incentive to increase the polyester ratio in polyester-cotton blends is strengthening.
PTA and Polyester Staple Fiber: Short-Term Adjustments in the Polyester Chain
The simultaneous decline of PTA and polyester staple fiber is not an isolated event. PTA was quoted at 5,910.50 yuan/ton. Although up 21.80% year-on-year, the daily drop of 0.79% reflects dual pressure from weakening upstream PX cost support and marginally declining downstream polyester operating rates. Polyester staple fiber was quoted at 7,332.23 yuan/ton, up 9.43% year-on-year, but the 0.82% daily decline suggests that some factories have chosen to lower prices to move inventory after accumulation.
From a chain transmission perspective, a drop in PTA directly reduces the production cost of polyester staple fiber and polyester filament yarn. Interestingly, the three major filament varieties—polyester POY, DTY, and FDY—all showed no price fluctuation, quoted at 8,087.50 yuan/ton, 9,168.75 yuan/ton, and 8,295.00 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year increases ranging from 10% to 16%. This indicates that supply and demand in the filament segment are relatively balanced, while competition in the staple fiber segment is more intense. For chemical fiber clusters like Shengze and Changxing, stable filament prices at least mean that weaving demand has not deteriorated.
Spandex and Viscose: The Holdouts of High Prosperity
Against the backdrop of mostly flat prices across the board, the performance of spandex and viscose staple fiber deserves special attention. Spandex was quoted at 29,666.67 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.09%, the largest among all tracked varieties. Behind this is sustained demand from activewear, yoga pants, and other elastic fabrics, coupled with the industrial characteristics of high industry concentration and controlled capacity expansion in the spandex sector. Viscose staple fiber was quoted at 14,200.00 yuan/ton, up 9.06% year-on-year, and spun rayon yarn was quoted at 17,925.00 yuan/ton, up 3.17% year-on-year. Although the price increase for the viscose chain is not as dramatic as spandex's, its price stability in a falling cotton market highlights its own demand resilience.
Cotton Yarn and Nylon: Seemingly Calm, But Undercurrents Flow
Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were flat at 23,466.67 yuan/ton and 24,875.00 yuan/ton, with year-on-year increases of 7.81% and 7.22% respectively. Price stability does not mean market tranquility. In fact, cotton yarn traders widely report fewer inquiries and longer transaction cycles. Procurement orders at home textile and apparel fabric hubs like Nantong and Keqiao are clearly shifting towards small batches and high frequency, with companies reluctant to build inventory. Nylon DTY, FDY, and POY prices were all flat, with year-on-year increases ranging from 6% to 9%. The stability of nylon comes more from rigid cost support from its raw material caprolactam than from strong demand pull.
Overall Assessment: Price Divergence Signals an Inventory Cycle Turning Point
Data from July 10 indicates that the textile raw material market is transitioning from 'broad-based increases' to 'structural divergence'. The decline in cotton and polyester staple fiber may be just the beginning. If downstream orders fail to pick up in the third quarter as expected, more varieties will face downward pressure. Meanwhile, the price resilience of differentiated varieties such as spandex and viscose sends a signal to buyers: in a post-rally market, precise stockpiling is more effective than blindly pressuring prices.