The public price monitoring data on July 10 reveals a diverging market: among 17 major textile raw material varieties, three posted daily declines while the rest were flat. Cotton led the drop with a 0.98% single-day fall to 17,706 yuan/ton. Although this is still 16.48% higher year-on-year, the short-term weakness is prompting market participants to reassess the supply-demand balance for the second half of the year.
Cotton Chain: Dual Pressure from New Crop Expectations and Weak End Demand
Cotton's price decline is not an isolated event. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S, though flat on the day, have YoY gains of only 7.81% and 7.22%, far below cotton's 16.48% YoY increase. This suggests that the profit margin in the midstream cotton processing stage is being squeezed—upstream raw material price hikes are not fully passing downstream.
Feedback from industrial clusters indicates that the northern hemisphere's new cotton crop is in a critical growth phase, and market expectations for the 2026/27 season are optimistic. Combined with sluggish operating rates at weaving mills, spot market buying is cautious. The 0.79% drop in PTA and the 0.82% decline in polyester staple fiber form a联动, indicating that the polyester chain is also facing destocking pressure. PTA closed at 5,910.50 yuan/ton, up 21.80% YoY, but the short-term correction is worth attention for foreign trade buyers.
Chemical Fibers and Spandex: Cost-Driven and Differentiated Demand Support
In stark contrast to the cotton chain, spandex, acrylonitrile, and nylon showed strong performance. Spandex prices stood at 29,666.67 yuan/ton, posting a YoY gain of 21.09%, the highest among all tracked varieties. This phenomenon is driven by the growing penetration of elastic fabrics in sportswear, outdoor gear, and underwear, as well as cost support from upstream MDI and PTMEG.
Acrylonitrile rose 15.61% YoY to 9,133.33 yuan/ton, exerting cost pressure on the acrylic and carbon fiber chains. Nylon series (DTY, FDY, POY) saw YoY gains between 6% and 9%, reflecting high nylon-6 chip prices and growing substitution effects in apparel and luggage applications.
Notably, viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices were flat, with YoY gains of 9.06% and 3.17%, respectively. The divergence in the viscose chain suggests that upstream raw material price increases have not been fully absorbed by the yarn segment, possibly due to competition from alternatives like lyocell.
Industry Logic Behind the Price Signals
The current price structure is not merely a supply-demand imbalance but reflects three deep trends:
- The profit distribution in the cotton chain is shifting, and if cotton prices continue to fall, yarn mills face rising inventory depreciation risks.
- Within chemical fibers, polyester is highly sensitive to crude oil fluctuations, while spandex and nylon show greater price resilience due to product differentiation.
- End-use demand is structurally shifting—sportswear, outdoor, and fast fashion's emphasis on elasticity and functionality is reshaping raw material procurement priorities.
For foreign trade companies, this means distinguishing the basis risk of different raw materials in quotation cycles. Cotton-based orders should have shorter validity periods, while orders containing spandex or nylon can afford longer price commitments.