Textile Raw Material Price Divergence Intensifies: Cotton and Polyester Under Pressure, Chemical Fiber Shows Resilience

On July 10, 2026, the textile bulk commodity market presented a mixed picture. Monitoring data shows only three products experienced daily declines, but these focused on cotton, polyester staple fiber, and PTA, with drops of 0.98%, 0.82%, and 0.79% respectively, dragging the sector's average daily change to -0.15%. The remaining dozen products held steady, forming a clear pattern of 'few declines, majority stalemate.'

This apparent calm masks underlying divergence—a mismatch between upstream cost fluctuations and downstream order rhythms. PTA's 0.79% daily drop, combined with polyester staple fiber's 0.82% decline, points to short-term loose supply-demand balance in the polyester chain. Notably, while PTA's year-on-year growth remains high at 21.80%, its recent correction is transmitting to polyester staple fiber, whose year-on-year gain has narrowed to 9.43%, widening the gap between them.

Cotton Under Pressure: Cotton Leads Decline, Cotton Yarn Remains Unchanged

Cotton's nearly 1% daily drop, with a year-on-year increase of 16.48%, made it the biggest decliner of the day. However, downstream cotton yarn prices did not follow suit. 21S and 32S cotton yarn held at 23,466.67 yuan/ton and 24,875 yuan/ton, up 7.81% and 7.22% year-on-year respectively. This 'cotton down, yarn stable' pattern means cotton spinning mills' profit margins are being squeezed—raw material costs fall, but end-product prices cannot adjust downward simultaneously due to order support or inventory costs.

For cotton spinning enterprises, the current situation is delicate. If cotton prices continue to decline, it could ease raw material cost pressures; but if downstream orders are insufficient, cotton yarn prices will also face pressure. Current yarn price firmness is more a lagged reflection of high-cost inventory than a signal of strong demand. Buyers should be alert to the risk of later yarn price corrections.

Chemical Fiber Sector: Nylon, Spandex Stalemate at Highs; Viscose Staple Fiber's Year-on-Year Gain Notable

In contrast to the cotton sector, most chemical fiber products saw flat prices but significant year-on-year gains. Spandex rose 21.09% year-on-year, nylon DTY rose 7.21%, and viscose staple fiber rose 9.06%. The stability of these products suggests a temporary balance between supply and demand, and also indicates that upstream raw material costs have been partially absorbed at current high levels.

Although viscose staple fiber's year-on-year gain is lower than spandex's, its absolute price of 14,200 yuan/ton, combined with spun rayon yarn's year-on-year gain of only 3.17%, shows that more profit in the viscose chain remains at the raw material end. The cost pressure on spun rayon yarn mills has not eased, which may dampen procurement intentions from downstream home textile and apparel fabric buyers.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Seize the window of cotton price correction for modest procurement, but control the pace to avoid building high-cost inventory amid the risk of yarn price declines. - The synchronized decline of polyester staple fiber and PTA offers short-term bargaining power for polyester fabric purchases; lock in prices with suppliers for 2-3 weeks. - Given the high stalemate of viscose staple fiber prices, prioritize substitute materials or reduce spot purchases, waiting for price easing before the traditional peak season in September.

For Export Enterprises - Incorporate raw material price volatility risks into export order pricing, adopting 'floating base price + fixed processing fee' models. - For orders involving functional fabrics with high spandex or nylon prices, communicate cost-sharing plans with clients in advance. - Monitor the linkage between RMB exchange rate and PTA import costs; the narrowing domestic-foreign price gap for PTA favors increasing domestic sourcing.