In June 2026, China's national textile and apparel specialized market sentiment indices for both managers and merchants rebounded, recording 49.78 and 50.07 respectively. The manager index rose 0.43 percentage points from May, while the merchant index increased by 0.34 percentage points. This data indicates that the overall operating environment of specialized markets is marginally improving after earlier fluctuations.
Foot Traffic and Store Openings: Clear Signs of Recovery
Among the sub-indices, the most notable are the foot traffic index and store opening rate index. In June, the foot traffic index rose 0.64 percentage points to 49.03, and the store opening rate index increased by 0.32 percentage points to 49.35. Although both remain below the 50 threshold, their consecutive rise suggests that offline physical market activity is recovering. The logistics shipment volume index also increased by 0.64 percentage points, echoing the foot traffic data, indicating that the physical transaction chain is accelerating. The rental index stabilized at 50.65, showing that market property values are holding up without large-scale price cuts or vacancies.
Merchant Side: Volume Up, Prices Down, Margins Squeezed
However, the merchant-level data reveals deeper contradictions. In June, the merchant sales volume index recovered to 50.14, up 1.03 percentage points from the previous period, but the average selling price index fell 0.22 percentage points to 49.30. The profit index, despite rising 0.89 percentage points, remained at only 49.86. This implies that merchants have traded higher sales volume for lower prices, without expanding profit margins. More concerning, the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 percentage points to 50.63, and the inventory index rose 0.21 percentage points to 50.00, indicating increased operating cost pressures and slower inventory clearance. This combination of 'rising volume, falling prices, and increasing costs' poses a sustained test to the cash flow of small and medium-sized merchants.
E-commerce Channels: Accelerating Structural Substitution
In contrast to the slow recovery of offline markets, e-commerce sales indices performed strongly. The manager e-commerce sales index stood at 51.61, up 0.64 percentage points, while the merchant e-commerce sales index reached 50.49, up 0.35 percentage points. Both indices are stable above the threshold, with significant increases. Data shows that 22.58% of specialized markets saw increased e-commerce sales, and 9.79% of merchants also reported growth. This reflects an irreversible shift in the channel structure within specialized markets—online is no longer a supplement but a source of incremental growth. For merchants reliant on traditional wholesale models, building e-commerce capabilities has shifted from optional to essential.
Outlook: Confidence Returns, but Foundation Fragile
Regarding forward-looking indices, the next-period manager sentiment index is 50.32, and the merchant index is 50.84, both above 50, indicating cautious optimism for July. However, it is notable that the manager index fell 2.91 percentage points from the previous period, while the merchant index rose 0.70 percentage points, creating a divergence. This may suggest that market managers are skeptical about the sustainability of the macro environment and mass consumption, while front-line merchants are making judgments based on short-term order recovery.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Take advantage of the window period when merchants are reducing prices to boost volume. Given the decline in the average selling price index in June, consider locking in prices for fabrics and garments before the traditional slow season in July-August. - Prioritize merchants with higher e-commerce sales indices, as they typically have faster supply chain responses and greater price transparency online, facilitating comparison shopping.
For Factories - Given the profit pressure on merchants, offer small-batch, multi-lot production solutions to help clients reduce inventory risk. - Reserve production capacity for e-commerce channels, especially for fast-response hot items, to align with the continued growth of online sales in specialized markets.
Overall, the June 2026 sentiment index sends a complex signal: the market is emerging from the trough, but the recovery is uneven. The recovery of offline foot traffic, the expansion of online channels, and the squeeze on merchant profits will jointly define the industry trend for the second half of the year.