In the second week of July 2026 (July 6-10), the textile commodity market experienced an unusual polarization. PTA posted a 2.25% weekly gain and a staggering 21.80% year-on-year increase, making it the strongest performer. In stark contrast, acrylonitrile plunged 4.20% in a single week, while polyester FDY and DTY fell 1.68% and 1.28% respectively. The sector's average weekly change was -0.38%. This divergence is not a simple failure of cost transmission but a concentrated reflection of different supply-demand logics and inventory cycles across the industrial chain.
Cost Side: The Divergent Logic Behind PTA's Strength and Acrylonitrile's Collapse
PTA's rally was directly supported by firm upstream PX prices and supply tightness from plant maintenance. Industry data shows spot PTA prices surged from 5,780.66 yuan/ton at the start of the week to 5,910.50 yuan/ton, leading not only the textile sector but also setting a new single-week high for the year. The 21.80% year-on-year increase indicates PTA has remained at historically high levels for months, putting continuous pressure on downstream polyester filament and staple fiber producers' cost management.
However, acrylonitrile, another chemical raw material, followed a completely opposite trajectory. Its price fell from 9,533.33 yuan/ton to 9,133.33 yuan/ton, a 4.20% drop—the largest in the sector. Despite a still-positive 15.61% year-on-year gain, the sharp short-term decline reflects weak demand from downstream acrylic fiber and ABS resin sectors, forcing producers to offload accumulated inventories at lower prices. This divergence signals that the era of synchronized price increases for textile chemical raw materials ended in May, and fundamental differences among varieties are now magnifying.
Polyester Chain: Staple Fiber Holds, Filament Under Pressure
Significant divergence also emerged within the polyester family. Polyester staple fiber rose 0.95%, relatively stable, while polyester FDY and DTY fell 1.68% and 1.28% respectively. Staple fiber was supported by rigid demand from cotton-blend spinning orders and partial substitution for viscose staple fiber, which was flat at 14,200 yuan/ton. The weakness in filament was directly linked to declining weaving mill operating rates. In major grey fabric production bases like Shengze and Changxing, loom utilization rates generally fell below 60% during the traditional July off-season, with purchases of POY, FDY, and DTY limited to essential replenishment. Speculative stocking was minimal.
Polyester POY fell 0.77% for the week, a smaller decline than FDY and DTY, but as an intermediate product, its price signal has forward-looking implications for downstream texturing and weaving mills' cost expectations. A weakening POY price often suggests texturing mills lack confidence in the outlook, thereby squeezing DTY processing margins. The current spread between DTY and POY has narrowed to below 1,100 yuan/ton, approaching the breakeven line for some small and medium-sized texturing enterprises.
Cotton and Chemical Fibers: Cotton Yarn Fluctuates Narrowly, Viscose and Spandex Static
Cotton yarn 32S and 21S rose 0.61% and 0.28% respectively, with modest gains. Cotton lint fell 0.92% for the week, from 17,870.50 yuan/ton to 17,706 yuan/ton, though its 16.48% year-on-year increase remains historically elevated. Cotton yarn's resilience is mainly due to mills' low-inventory strategy. Amid high and volatile cotton prices, spinning mills generally maintain 15-20 days of finished product inventory, avoiding aggressive markdowns or price hikes, preferring a wait-and-see approach.
Viscose staple fiber and spandex prices were unchanged for the week, at 14,200 yuan/ton and 29,666.67 yuan/ton respectively. Spandex's year-on-year gain of 21.09% is notable, but its recent upward momentum has clearly slowed, reflecting limited incremental demand from downstream textile and apparel orders. Raw silk edged down 0.07%, with a year-on-year decline of 10.07%, the only variety with a negative year-on-year change, indicating persistent weakness in silk consumption.
Industry Impact: Profit Shifts from Midstream to Both Ends
The week's price data reveals a key trend: profit is migrating from the midstream of the textile chain (texturing, weaving) to both ends (raw materials, branded end-products). The sharp swings in PTA and acrylonitrile indicate upstream raw materials have entered a high-volatility phase, while the narrow fluctuations of intermediate goods like cotton yarn and polyester staple fiber reflect the processing sector's lack of pricing power. For procurement teams, this means the margin for error in raw material purchasing timing is shrinking—excessive stockpiling or over-aggressive inventory reduction both carry risks.