The commodity price monitoring data on July 10 reveals a warning signal: the textile raw material market is undergoing structural adjustment. PTA, polyester staple, and cotton fell simultaneously, by 0.79%, 0.82%, and 0.98% respectively, dragging the sector down 0.15% overall. This is not an isolated event but the result of upstream cost loosening and downstream demand weakness resonating together.
The "Ice and Fire" of Upstream Raw Materials
PTA fell 0.79% to 5910.50 yuan/ton, though its year-on-year increase remains high at 21.80%, indicating that the previously accumulated price bubble is slowly deflating. Polyester staple weakened to 7332.23 yuan/ton, with its YoY gain narrowing to 9.43%, reflecting shrinking margins in the polyester chain. Cotton saw the largest daily drop of 0.98% to 17706 yuan/ton, but still up 16.48% YoY, suggesting the fundamental supply-demand balance hasn't changed, only short-term sentiment and technical corrections.
In stark contrast, acrylonitrile and spandex rose 15.61% and 21.09% YoY, holding firm at 9133.33 yuan/ton and 29666.67 yuan/ton respectively. Acrylonitrile's strength is driven by downstream demand from automotive and home appliance sectors; spandex benefits from sustained demand for elastic fabrics in apparel. This divergence means textile companies can no longer judge overall costs based on a single raw material trend.
The Hidden Worry of Natural Fibers: Raw Silk Down 10.07% YoY
Raw silk prices have plateaued at 425,700 yuan/ton, but its YoY decline has deepened to 10.07%. This is not just a price issue but an industrial signal. The prolonged low price of raw silk reflects weak end-consumption of silk products—recovery in European and American demand for high-end silk goods remains sluggish, and domestic consumption upgrades have not fully trickled down to the silk category. For silk reeling enterprises and fabric mills, this means inventory pressure may increase further, and bargaining space for autumn/winter orders will be compressed.
Viscose staple and cotton yarn prices remained stable, with viscose at 14,200 yuan/ton (up 9.06% YoY), and cotton yarn 21S and 32S at 23,466.67 and 24,875 yuan/ton respectively (up around 7% YoY). The narrowing price gap between man-made and natural cotton yarn may prompt some apparel brands to adjust blending ratios.
Undercurrents in the Chemical Fiber Sector: The Delicate Balance of Polyester Filament and Nylon
Polyester POY, DTY, and FDY all held flat, but their YoY gains exceeded 10%, at 16.05%, 10.38%, and 14.98% respectively. On the surface, prices are stable; in reality, it's a tug-of-war between falling PTA costs and weaving mill operating rates. Nylon DTY, FDY, and POY also remained flat, with YoY gains between 6% and 9%. The "sideways" movement of polyester and nylon is not a sign of supply-demand balance but a market waiting for direction—if PTA continues to fall, polyester filament faces catch-down risk; conversely, if crude oil rebounds, chemical fiber costs will rise again.
For textile companies, the biggest trap now is the "price illusion": some raw materials appear high and stable, but their lofty YoY gains imply significant room for future correction. Buyers should avoid bulk stockpiling during price stalemates, especially for PTA and polyester staple, whose downward trend is not yet over.