On July 10, 2026, the textile commodity market witnessed a rare simultaneous decline across multiple key raw materials. Cotton, polyester staple fiber, and PTA all fell by more than 0.7%, with cotton registering the largest drop at 0.98% to 17,706 yuan per ton. This breaks the sideways consolidation pattern seen over the past month and signals subtle shifts in the upstream-downstream transmission mechanism.
Market Context
According to public industry data, on July 10, none of the textile commodities monitored saw a price increase, while three declined. The top three decliners were cotton (-0.98%), polyester staple fiber (-0.82%), and PTA (-0.79%), bringing the sector's average daily change to -0.15%.
Year-on-year comparisons reveal even sharper divergence. PTA was up 21.80%, spandex up 21.09%, acrylonitrile up 15.61%, and polyester POY up 16.05%. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S rose 7.81% and 7.22% respectively, while viscose staple fiber gained 9.06%. Raw silk, however, bucked the trend with a 10.07% year-on-year decline.
Notably, cotton prices fell from 17,881.83 yuan/ton on July 9 to 17,706.00 yuan/ton, a near-1% single-day drop—one of the steepest in six months. This occurred despite normal weather in Xinjiang and healthy new crop growth, suggesting the decline is demand-driven.
Industry Impact
The simultaneous drop in cotton and chemical fiber raw materials implies easing cost pressure for downstream textile mills, but also reflects insufficient orders. The logic behind cotton's decline differs from that of PTA and polyester staple fiber: cotton is more constrained by slowing export growth and weak restocking appetite among spinners, while PTA and polyester staple fiber are affected by crude oil volatility and accumulated inventory in the polyester chain.
For cotton spinners, lower cotton prices should improve yarn margins. Cotton yarn 21S currently stands at 23,466.67 yuan/ton, up 7.81% year-on-year. With raw material costs falling, processing margins could expand in theory. However, if downstream fabric and garment orders weaken simultaneously, margin improvement may not materialize.
Spandex, with a 21.09% year-on-year gain, remains elevated at 29,666.67 yuan/ton, supported by sustained demand for stretch fabrics. But the decline in PTA and polyester staple fiber may signal a cyclical adjustment in the chemical fiber chain. Polyester filament prices (POY, DTY, FDY) are stable but all up over 10% year-on-year; further PTA weakness could pressure filament prices.
From a regional perspective, inventory levels in Shengze and Changxing—major polyester filament hubs—have risen for three consecutive weeks, with some mills offering discounts to move stock. In Keqiao, cotton yarn trading is sluggish, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach. Nantong's home textile market has seen some enterprises postpone autumn new product procurement due to raw material volatility.