The second week of July 2026 saw an unusually sharp divergence in textile raw material markets. While PTA surged 2.25% week-on-week, driving small gains in polyester staple fiber and cotton yarn, acrylonitrile plunged 4.20%, and polyester FDY and DTY both fell over 1%. The overall average weekly change of -0.38% masks a growing mismatch between upstream costs and downstream demand.
PTA Stands Out: A Short-Term Convergence of Cost Push and Supply Contraction
PTA prices jumped from 5,780 to 5,910 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.80%, making it the week's best performer. The core driver is on the cost side: upstream PX prices have been firming due to global crude oil strength and Asian refinery maintenance, directly raising PTA production costs. Meanwhile, several domestic PTA plants entered planned maintenance in July, reducing operating rates and amplifying the cost pass-through.
Notably, PTA's strength failed to lift downstream polyester filament yarns. Polyester FDY and DTY fell 1.68% and 1.28% respectively, while POY edged down 0.77%. This indicates weaving mills are unwilling to accept high-priced raw materials, forcing filament producers to compress margins to maintain sales. The widening spread between PTA and polyester filament warrants attention—if end-user demand remains weak, PTA's rally will be unsustainable.
Acrylonitrile's Collapse: Structural Pressure from Overcapacity
Acrylonitrile fell 4.20% weekly to 9,133 yuan/ton, the worst performer despite a 15.61% year-on-year gain. The sharp correction reflects a rapidly deteriorating supply-demand balance. The core reason is the concentrated release of new domestic acrylonitrile capacity in 2025-2026, while demand from key downstream sectors—ABS resin, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide—has slowed significantly.
ABS industry, in particular, has seen declining operating rates due to weak real estate and home appliance demand, leading to minimal purchasing interest. Acrylonitrile producers are accumulating inventory and cutting prices to maintain liquidity. This decline is not a short-term fluctuation but the inevitable result of capacity cycle and demand cycle misalignment. Producers may face more severe profit tests in the second half of the year.
Cotton Textile Chain: Narrow Fluctuations in a Standoff
Cotton yarn 32S and 21S rose 0.61% and 0.28% respectively, while cotton lint edged down 0.92%. The cotton textile chain shows narrow movements, reflecting a stalemate: upstream cotton prices are supported by new-season production cut expectations and tighter import quotas, limiting downside, but downstream grey fabric and garment orders show no clear improvement, with mills only buying on a need-to basis.
- Cotton yarn 32S at 24,875 yuan/ton is up 7.22% year-on-year, but the pace has slowed from Q1.
- Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn prices were flat, indicating stable but non-growing demand for substitute fibers.
- Raw silk edged down 0.07% and fell 10.07% year-on-year, one of the few negative readings, reflecting persistently weak silk export orders.
Lessons from the Divergence
Three key transmission paths emerge from this week's data:
First, the divergence between cost-driven varieties (PTA) and demand-driven varieties (polyester filament, acrylonitrile) shows that the market's dominant force has shifted from upstream costs to downstream demand. Without a meaningful recovery in end-user orders, any raw material price increase will struggle to be absorbed by the chain.
Second, the split between polyester staple fiber (+0.95%) and polyester filament (-1.28% to -1.68%) is telling. Staple fiber, used mainly in nonwovens and fillings, has relatively rigid demand, while filament relies more on textile and apparel exports, which are more exposed to overseas market volatility. This suggests that for procurement teams, filament raw materials carry higher risk in an uncertain export environment.
Third, acrylonitrile's collapse serves as a warning. Varieties with rapid capacity expansion and lagging demand may face further price corrections. Similar risks exist in the nylon chain—nylon POY, DTY, and FDY all fell slightly this week, with year-on-year gains of 6-9%. If downstream nylon weaving orders continue to weaken, nylon prices will face additional downward pressure.