Local Cooling in Textile Raw Material Market: What Do the Declines in PTA and Cotton Signal?

On July 10, 2026, the bulk commodity price monitoring showed that the textile sector had an average daily change of -0.15%, but internal structural divergence was evident: PTA, polyester staple fiber, and cotton all fell, while more than a dozen other varieties remained flat. This pattern of 'unable to rise, uneven decline' often indicates a market shifting from one-sided expectations to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Background

Among the decliners, cotton saw the largest drop, with prices falling from 17,881.83 yuan/ton to 17,706 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.98%. PTA and polyester staple fiber fell by 0.79% and 0.82%, respectively. Notably, these three are core raw materials in the textile supply chain—PTA is the source of polyester, cotton is the base of cotton spinning, and polyester staple fiber is widely used in nonwovens and blends.

Compared with the same period last year, these varieties still show significant gains: PTA up 21.80%, cotton up 16.48%, and polyester staple fiber up 9.43%. However, the emergence of a single-day pullback suggests that high prices are encountering resistance from downstream buyers. Especially in July, the traditional off-season for textiles, combined with factors like high-temperature power rationing, has led to generally lower operating rates among weaving enterprises, slowing their raw material procurement pace.

Industry Impact

The softening of PTA prices will first transmit to the polyester filament and polyester staple fiber segments. Although prices of polyester POY, DTY, and FDY remained unchanged on the day, the easing at the raw material end implies weaker cost support going forward. For polyester plants, if PTA continues to weaken, polyester products may face pressure to follow suit, squeezing processing margins.

The decline in cotton has a more direct impact on the cotton spinning supply chain. Although prices of cotton yarn 21S and 32S were flat on the day, they have risen 7.81% and 7.22% year-on-year, respectively. If cotton prices fall further, it will ease cost pressure for spinning mills, but may also trigger a wait-and-see attitude among downstream fabric mills and garment manufacturers, delaying procurement plans.

In contrast, the stable prices of raw silk, viscose staple fiber, and spandex reflect relatively balanced supply and demand in their respective markets. Spandex, in particular, with a year-on-year increase of 21.09%, still holds firm, indicating that demand for elastic fabrics continues to support prices.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - With PTA and cotton currently pulling back but still high year-on-year, consider replenishing in small batches to avoid large purchases at the start of the correction. - Closely monitor polyester plant operating rates and inventory levels. If PTA continues to decline, polyester product prices may adjust within 1-2 weeks. - Cotton yarn prices remain firm, but cotton futures volatility is increasing. Sign short-term floating price agreements with suppliers to lock in some orders.

For Export Enterprises - When quoting export orders, factor in the potential for raw material price corrections to avoid customers demanding renegotiation due to falling material costs. - Monitor the linkage between RMB exchange rates and raw material prices. If both weaken simultaneously, increase the exchange rate risk premium in quotes. - For long-term orders, adopt quarterly price adjustment mechanisms using monthly average prices of key raw materials like PTA and cotton as benchmarks.