Cotton Leads Decline, PTA Follows: What Signals from Textile Raw Materials on July 10?

On July 10, 2026, the bulk textile commodity price index showed a subtle picture: while most products remained flat, cotton, polyester staple fiber, and PTA all weakened, dragging the sector's average daily change to -0.15%.

Cotton dropped 0.98% to 17,706 yuan per ton, leading the decline. Though the absolute drop is modest, its year-on-year increase of 16.48% suggests the earlier high prices are facing short-term selling pressure. For cotton mills, the easing raw material cost may open a brief profit repair window, but downstream order uptake remains uncertain.

Divergence in Upstream Raw Materials

PTA fell 0.79% to 5,910.50 yuan per ton, yet its year-on-year gain still stands at 21.80%. Polyester staple fiber also declined 0.82% to 7,332.23 yuan per ton, up 9.43% YoY. As the core intermediate in the polyester chain, PTA's price correction may reflect adjustments in polyester operating rates or weakening demand from the weaving sector.

Notably, polyester POY, DTY, and FDY prices remained unchanged, with YoY gains between 10% and 16%. This suggests that the upstream PTA price drop has not yet fully transmitted downstream, indicating a possible shift in profit distribution along the polyester chain.

Spandex vs. Raw Silk: Two Extremes in YoY Performance

Spandex held steady at 29,666.67 yuan per ton, with a YoY surge of 21.09%, the highest in the sector. Its high elasticity aligns with sustained demand for sportswear and yoga pants. For spandex buyers, current prices are near historical highs, warranting cautious inventory management.

On the other end, raw silk fell 10.07% YoY to 425,700 yuan per ton, the deepest decline in the sector. This prolonged weakness reflects sluggish end-consumer demand for silk products and growing competition from substitute fibers, putting pressure on the sericulture industry in regions like Guangxi and Zhejiang.

Cotton Yarn and Chemical Fiber Yarn: Stability with Underlying Risks

Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were flat, with YoY gains of 7.81% and 7.22% respectively. Viscose staple fiber and polyester yarn also remained unchanged. The stability suggests that downstream weaving mills are purchasing on a need-to basis, while cost pass-through from raw materials has largely completed.

However, if cotton prices continue to fall, cotton yarn prices will likely follow. Mills face a dilemma: maintaining prices may lose orders, while cutting prices could trigger inventory write-downs.

Implications for Procurement and Inventory Strategy

For Buyers - The short-term dip in cotton presents a phased restocking opportunity, but monitor pre-harvest supply expectations and build positions in batches. - With spandex at high levels, negotiate short-term floating price contracts with suppliers to avoid locking in at the top. - Given persistent low prices for raw silk, consider negotiating long-term low-price agreements with silk fabric suppliers to lock in cost advantages.

For Exporters - The pullback in PTA and polyester staple fiber lowers the cost base for chemical fiber textile exports, offering a chance to offer more competitive quotes to Southeast Asian clients. - With cotton yarn prices stable but raw materials weakening, include raw material price linkage clauses in export contracts to hedge risks. - Monitor anti-dumping investigations in spandex export destinations, as high prices may squeeze export margins.