PTA Leads Gains, Acrylonitrile Plunges: Textile Raw Material Market Divergence Intensifies in July

In the second week of July 2026, the price trend of textile bulk commodities presented a mixed picture: PTA rebounded strongly by 2.25%, while acrylonitrile plunged 4.20% in a single week. Among the 17 monitored varieties, only 4 posted gains, 9 declined, with an average weekly change of -0.38%. This divergence reflects the ongoing tug-of-war between upstream cost pass-through and downstream demand weakness.

Cost and Demand Squeeze

PTA prices rose from 5,780.66 yuan/ton to 5,910.50 yuan/ton this week, up 21.80% year-on-year. This rally was mainly driven by high international crude oil prices and tight PX supply. However, the uptrend has not effectively passed through to downstream polyester products. Polyester FDY, DTY, and POY fell 1.68%, 1.28%, and 0.77% respectively. This means polyester mills' profit margins are being squeezed from both sides: higher raw material costs and weak buying appetite for fabrics.

Polyester staple fiber was one of the few bright spots, rising 0.95% to 7,332.23 yuan/ton, up 9.43% YoY. The resilient demand for staple fiber comes mainly from the spinning sector, forming a linkage with cotton yarn prices. Cotton yarn 32S and 21S rose 0.61% and 0.28% respectively, reflecting moderate weaving activity but no large-scale inventory replenishment.

Acrylonitrile Plunge: Supply-Demand Reversal

Acrylonitrile prices dropped sharply from 9,533.33 yuan/ton to 9,133.33 yuan/ton, a 4.20% weekly decline. Although still up 15.61% YoY, such a steep single-week drop warrants caution. Acrylonitrile is a key raw material for acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber. The price slump is attributed to concentrated capacity restarts after maintenance, leading to a surge in supply, coupled with slowing order growth in downstream acrylic yarn and plastic modification sectors, prompting buyers to adopt a wait-and-see stance.

From a supply chain perspective, the decline has not yet fully reflected in acrylic yarn prices, but downward pressure is expected in the next 2-3 weeks. For knitting and woolen mills using acrylic fiber, this could be a window to reduce procurement costs.

Divergence Between Natural and Synthetic Fibers

Cotton prices fell 0.92% to 17,706 yuan/ton, up 16.48% YoY. The easing in cotton prices is linked to stable weather in Xinjiang and higher production expectations for the new season. Meanwhile, viscose staple fiber and spandex prices remained flat at 14,200 yuan/ton and 29,666.67 yuan/ton respectively. Spandex, up 21.09% YoY, has been hovering at high levels for weeks, indicating slowing growth in downstream elastic fabric demand.

Raw silk prices edged down 0.07% to 425,700 yuan/ton, down 10.07% YoY, the only monitored variety with a negative annual comparison. This highlights persistent weakness in silk end-consumption, especially from overseas high-end markets.

Practical Advice

For Buyers - PTA and polyester staple fiber may still have short-term upside, but polyester filament yarns face high inventory pressure. Prioritize staple fiber orders; adopt a hand-to-mouth strategy for filament yarns. - After the sharp drop in acrylonitrile, there is a risk of oversold rebound. Consider phased purchasing in the 9,100-9,200 yuan/ton range, avoiding a full lump-sum buy. - Cotton yarn prices are stable with a slight upward bias, but cotton cost support is weakening. Consider reducing regular inventory of 32S and 21S to a 2-3 week supply.

For Foreign Trade Companies - Export quotes for polyester FDY and DTY should follow domestic price declines, but include price protection clauses to avoid losses if raw materials rebound. - For acrylonitrile downstream acrylic products (e.g., sweaters, blankets), negotiate price reductions with overseas buyers to secure off-season orders in July-August. - Monitor the spread between PTA futures and spot prices. If the spot premium widens, consider locking in future procurement costs via futures contracts.