On July 10, 2026, public quotes from major cotton yarn mills in Shandong revealed a notable structural shift: the price spread between 21S and 32S ring-spun knitting yarns widened to 1,700-2,000 CNY/ton. Specifically, 21S yarns were quoted between 22,800 and 24,400 CNY/ton, while 32S ranged from 24,500 to 26,400 CNY/ton. This differential is significantly above the two-year average, signaling that downstream weaving mills and fabric buyers face an accelerating trade-off between cost and quality.
Supply-Demand Dynamics Behind the Divergence
Looking at the detailed quotes, 21S cotton yarn was supplied by multiple Shandong-based companies including Guanxing Textile, Guanjie Textile, Jinyi Yarn, and Runfengda Textile, with a price span of 1,600 CNY/ton—indicating fiercer competition in the low-count segment. For 32S yarn, the range was wider at 1,900 CNY/ton, with the lowest quote of 24,500 CNY/ton from Guanxing Textile and the highest of 26,400 CNY/ton from Hongyang Chemical, a non-traditional textile firm. This entry of cross-industry capital into the high-count yarn space is a new phenomenon.
The core driver is downstream demand bifurcation. 32S yarn is mainly used in mid-to-high-end knitted fabrics and apparel, where end-consumer demand remains resilient, and it partially substitutes for higher-count imported yarns, providing support. In contrast, 21S yarn is used in price-sensitive segments like low-end workwear and home-textile base fabrics, where cost pass-through is limited, forcing mills to cut prices to maintain capacity utilization.
Regional Industrial Cluster Impact
As a major cotton spinning hub, Shandong's price movements set the tone for neighboring provinces like Henan, Jiangsu, and Hebei. The widening 21S-32S spread implies:
- Weaving mills relying on 21S face relatively eased raw material costs, but their finished product prices may also decline, leaving margins unchanged.
- Mills focused on 32S and above may see current high prices attract capacity switching, risking a price correction in 3-6 months as supply increases.
- Traders should watch the large intra-region price differences (over 1,000 CNY/ton for the same count), which often signal inventory pressure and capital chain divergence, offering short-term arbitrage opportunities.
Profit Reallocation Trend in the Chain
This structural price divergence is not isolated. Combined with recent cotton raw material fluctuations and downstream order mix changes, it suggests the textile chain is moving from "all boats rise and fall together" to a "product-by-product differentiation" phase. In low-count yarns, overcapacity and commoditization force price concessions; in high-count yarns, technical barriers and customer loyalty sustain pricing power.
This shift demands new decision-making logic for buyers and mills: procurement can no longer rely on a single "cotton yarn price up/down" indicator but must drill down to specific counts, cotton grades, spinning methods, and even individual supplier inventory cycles.