The sentiment of China's textile and apparel professional markets edged up in June 2026, but the structural divergence behind the data deserves attention across the supply chain. According to the latest monitoring by the China National Textile and Apparel Council, the manager sentiment index reached 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points from May, while the merchant sentiment index rose 0.34 points to 50.07. Although the absolute values remain near the boom-bust line, the forward-looking indicators for merchants all rebounded above 50, signaling a recovery in market confidence.
Market Operations: Foot Traffic and Store Opening Rates Improve, Rents Stabilize
From the managers' perspective, positive changes emerged in June. The logistics delivery volume index, foot traffic index, and store opening rate index all increased month-on-month, with the first two rising by 0.64 percentage points each and the store opening rate index up by 0.32 points. 93.55% of professional markets reported stable rent levels, indicating a generally stable operating environment. These indicators suggest that after earlier fluctuations, the actual operations of offline professional markets are bottoming out. However, the total business volume index remained flat from the previous month, implying that the increase in foot traffic and shipments has not yet fully translated into sales growth—markets are in a transitional phase where "footfall recovers but transactions are still pending."
Merchant Side: Sales Rebound but Profitability Under Pressure, Cost-Price Gap Widens
Data from the merchant side paints a more complex picture. The sales volume index for merchants rose 1.03 percentage points to 50.14, returning above the boom-bust line, suggesting that terminal sales are accelerating. However, the average selling price index stood at only 49.30, down 0.22 points from May and in contraction territory for two consecutive months. The profitability index improved 0.89 points but remained below 50 at 49.86. This implies that merchants are struggling with "volume growth without profit growth"—shipments are recovering, but price competition is intensifying, squeezing margins.
Meanwhile, the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 points to 50.63, indicating rising cost pressure. The inventory index edged up 0.21 points to 50.00, showing a slight easing of inventory pressure but with limited improvement. The interplay of rising costs and falling selling prices means that merchants' operational burdens have not materially lightened.
E-commerce Channel: A Market Stabilizer
E-commerce sales stood out in June. The e-commerce sales index for managers was 51.61, and for merchants it was 50.49, both above the boom-bust line and rising month-on-month. 22.58% of professional market managers reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from May; 9.79% of merchants saw e-commerce sales growth, a rise of 8.42 points. The integration of online and offline channels is accelerating within professional markets, with e-commerce becoming a critical tool to hedge against fluctuations in physical foot traffic. For small and medium-sized merchants, online increments are now a key driver of overall sales.
Forward-Looking Indicators: Diverging Confidence Between Managers and Merchants
Prospective indicators reveal a subtle divergence in expectations for July. The manager forward-looking sentiment index was 50.32, down 2.91 points from May, while the manager forward-looking business environment index fell 1.93 points to 50.97. In contrast, the merchant forward-looking sentiment index rose 0.70 points to 50.84, and their forward-looking business environment index increased 0.77 points to 50.84. Although all four indicators remain above 50, managers' confidence is marginally declining, while merchants' confidence is strengthening. This may reflect that merchants on the front line recognize the short-term effectiveness of "trading volume for price," whereas managers are more cautious about the sustainability of the overall recovery.