The cotton textile market is undergoing a typical deepening of the off-season cycle. The latest survey data from the China Cotton Textile Association shows that cotton prices experienced a roller-coaster ride, with the Zhengzhou Cotton Futures main contract retreating from a high of 16,140 yuan/ton to 15,615 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of over 500 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, polyester staple fiber, impacted by a significant drop in international oil prices, has seen its futures price fall to around 6,900 yuan/ton, with cost-side support clearly weakening.
Raw Material Market Divergence Intensifies
The cotton market was briefly driven up by macro sentiment after the US-Iran agreement boosted external markets, but downstream cotton yarn demand in the traditional off-season remained weak, lacking substantive industrial support, leading to a rapid price correction. Public industry data indicates that cotton prices are currently stuck in a range with limited driving factors, expected to continue oscillating. This means cotton textile companies lack clear direction for raw material costs in the short term and need more flexible procurement strategies.
For polyester staple fiber, the Strait of Hormuz shipping volume has recovered to about 60% of pre-conflict levels, with geopolitical premiums almost fully unwound, triggering a catch-up decline in the polyester chain. Prices continue to fall, but downstream restocking intentions have not been effectively stimulated, with market观望 sentiment strong. For polyester yarn companies, while lower raw material costs reduce production expenses, yarn prices have fallen in tandem, failing to substantially expand profit margins and instead posing risks of inventory depreciation.
The viscose staple fiber market shows an independent trend. Factory shipments remain tight, with traders raising quotes, and the supply crunch is expected to persist in the short term. However, downstream viscose yarn sales face pressure, with yarn prices weakening and companies mainly purchasing on a just-in-time basis, with few new orders. This structural contradiction of tight upstream but weak downstream means viscose staple fiber prices have some support but lack upward momentum, likely to remain stable.
Yarn Market: Shrinking Orders, Rising Inventories
The pure cotton yarn market continues its off-season pattern. Yarn mills have not made significant price adjustments, but trade channels are普遍 offering discounts, keeping actual transaction prices low. Finished product inventories at spinning mills are slowly climbing, downstream weaving operating rates are declining, grey fabric inventories are accumulating, and autumn/winter orders have yet to materialize. Companies remain generally cautious, with raw material procurement on a just-in-time basis and weak restocking intentions.
Vortex-spun yarn and color-spun yarn markets are also under pressure. Vortex-spun viscose yarn and polyester-viscose yarn are seeing weak volumes and prices, with light transactions, and companies mainly producing small orders to maintain production-sales balance. The color-spun yarn off-season atmosphere is strong; high-count differentiated varieties see relatively stable demand, but conventional varieties face high destocking pressure, with terminal orders scarce and wait-and-see sentiment spreading. Differentiated yarn companies maintain full capacity utilization, but order continuity is poor, mainly small and scattered orders. While product inventories haven't increased significantly, profits are further squeezed by price competition.
Polyester yarn and viscose yarn markets show divergent performance. Polyester yarn prices have followed raw material declines, compounded by the off-season, with spot trading further weakening, downstream purchasing only for essential needs, incomplete orders, and inventory pressure. Viscose yarn prices are weak, with slow transaction speeds. Operating rates and inventories remain at previous levels, with the market expected to stay stable.
Fabric Market: Slower Shipments, Accelerated Destocking
The grey cloth market continues its off-season trend, with slower shipments, orders mainly small batch quick-response, few new orders, and accumulating finished product inventories, increasing operational pressure for weaving mills. Raw material procurement is mainly on a just-in-time basis, with weak restocking intentions, and the market is expected to remain light.
The yarn-dyed fabric market has slowed overall, with machine utilization basically normal but lacking new orders. Raw cotton prices have dropped by about 300 yuan/ton, and high-count pure cotton yarn prices have fallen by about 180 yuan/ton. Fabric product prices have loosened locally, with thin profit margins. Weak downstream demand means most companies purchase only for immediate needs, maintaining a cautious outlook, and market confidence needs boosting.
The denim market faces particularly acute pressure. In late June, the ex-factory price of 10-count pure cotton OE yarn for denim fluctuated narrowly around 14,600 yuan/ton, but the industry is in a traditional off-season, with both domestic and export markets sluggish. Downstream orders are shrinking, factory operating rates are declining, and finished product shipments are slow. Companies are accelerating destocking, with overall market pressure prominent. Combined with the continued strengthening of the US dollar index, the export environment faces uncertainty. Industry players are closely monitoring export trends and jointly assessing market direction.