Polyester Gains, Cotton Weakens: What the Second Week of July 2026 Signals for Textile Raw Materials

In the second week of July 2026, the textile commodity market continued the divergent trend of the previous month. PTA rose 2.25% week-on-week, polyester staple fiber followed with a 0.95% gain, while acrylonitrile plunged 4.20%, and polyester FDY and DTY fell 1.68% and 1.28% respectively. Overall, the weekly average change was -0.38%, with only 4 products rising and 9 declining. Behind these numbers, three forces—cost, demand, and capacity—are reshaping the price center of textile raw materials.

Polyester Chain: Balancing Cost Push and Downstream Pressure

PTA led the rally, closing at 5,910.50 yuan/ton, up 21.80% year-on-year. The uptick was driven by upstream PX cost support and supply tightness from maintenance shutdowns. However, downstream polyester filament (FDY, DTY) fell notably, with FDY down 1.68% and DTY down 1.28%. This 'upstream up, downstream down' pattern means margins for polyester mills are being squeezed. Polyester staple fiber rose only 0.95%, far less than PTA, reflecting tepid end-user demand. For weaving mills, rising raw material costs without corresponding fabric price increases force them to compress processing margins.

Cotton and Man-Made Fibers: Dual Pressure from Weak Domestic Demand and Export Slowdown

Cotton fell 0.92% to 17,706 yuan/ton, though still up 16.48% year-on-year. Cotton yarn 32S and 21S edged up 0.61% and 0.28%, but gains were much smaller than a year earlier, indicating limited new orders for cotton fabrics. Acrylonitrile plunged 4.20%, the worst performer of the week. As a key raw material for acrylic fiber and ABS plastic, its sharp drop directly signals weak downstream demand. Viscose staple fiber and spandex remained flat, with the market in wait-and-see mode. Overall, domestic demand is tepid in the summer off-season, while overseas retailers are still destocking, slowing new order releases.

Industry Logic Behind the Divergence

This round of price moves is not a simple cyclical fluctuation but a reflection of structural adjustments. PTA's strength stems from slower capacity expansion in recent years, while downstream polyester capacity continues to be released, creating temporary supply-demand mismatches. In contrast, polyester filament prices fell due to earlier capacity overexpansion and rising inventory. The weakness in the cotton chain is linked to global cotton production growth expectations and sluggish domestic textile consumption. Acrylonitrile's crash is typical: multiple large projects came online since 2025, flooding supply while demand failed to keep pace. Such 'oversupplied' varieties face further downside risk.

Practical Recommendations

For Sourcing Teams - With PTA and polyester staple fiber at high levels, buy on a need basis and avoid large stockpiling. Watch for price corrections after maintenance shutdowns end in August. - Acrylonitrile and polyester filament are in a downtrend; extend procurement cycles and lock in low prices in batches. - Cotton yarn prices are stable for now, but falling cotton may pass through; maintain low inventory and consider blended products.

For Exporters - Adjust polyester filament export quotes downward to win orders, but hedge against upstream PTA volatility to avoid forward losses. - Update cotton product export quotes weekly, tracking ICE cotton futures and China's import quota policy. - Acrylonitrile downstream acrylic yarn exporters should negotiate floating-price contracts with suppliers to lock in processing fees and avoid raw material crash risks.