June brought subtle shifts to the textile professional market's sentiment. Data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council Circulation Branch shows the manager sentiment index at 49.78, up 0.43 points month-on-month, while the merchant sentiment index reached 50.07, up 0.34 points. Though seemingly a recovery, disaggregating the sub-indices reveals a more nuanced picture of divergence within the market.
Management Side: Foot Traffic and Logistics Recover, Rent Expectations Improve
From the management perspective, June saw marginal improvements in market operations. The logistics dispatch volume index and foot traffic index both rose 0.64 points from May, and the store opening rate index edged up 0.32 points. This suggests physical traffic in professional markets is recovering mid-year. More encouragingly, the rent index rose to 50.65, above the boom-bust line, indicating improved expectations for property values among market operators.
However, the total business volume index remained flat month-on-month and below the 50-point threshold. This implies that increased foot traffic has not yet translated into significant transaction growth. The managers' business environment index actually fell 1.61 points to 51.94, reflecting cautious attitudes toward the macro operating environment.
Merchant Side: Volume Recovery Masks Profitability Struggles
Merchant-level data reveals a more complex picture. The merchant sales volume index rebounded to 50.14 in June, returning above the boom-bust line after a month. However, the average selling price index stood at just 49.30, down 0.22 points from May, while the profitability index, at 49.86, remained below 50 despite a 0.89-point sequential increase.
This indicates merchants are "trading volume for price"—cutting prices or offering concessions to maintain sales, but squeezing profit margins further. More concerning, the comprehensive cost index fell to 50.63, down 0.19 points month-on-month, signaling rising cost pressures. The inventory index rose to 50.00, but the proportion of merchants reporting inventory reductions jumped 8.44 points, suggesting some are actively destocking.
E-commerce: A Bright Spot of Certain Growth
Against the backdrop of overall pressure, e-commerce sales emerged as the only reliable growth driver. The manager e-commerce sales index rose to 51.61, up 0.64 points month-on-month, while the merchant e-commerce sales index reached 50.49, up 0.35 points. Both indices are firmly above the boom-bust line.
Specifically, 22.58% of market managers reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 points from the previous month, and 9.79% of merchants reported the same, up 8.42 points. Online channels are becoming a vital incremental source for textile and apparel professional markets, especially for small and medium-sized merchants, serving as both a supplement and a hedge against offline traffic volatility.
Forecast Indices: Confidence Rises, but Watch for Expectation Gaps
Despite mixed actual operating data in June, market participants hold optimistic expectations for July. The manager forward-looking sentiment index stands at 50.32, and the merchant forward-looking sentiment index at 50.84, both above 50. Merchants' forward-looking business environment index also rose 0.77 points to 50.84.
This reflects market anticipation of the traditional summer-to-autumn season shift and the upcoming peak season for foreign trade. However, it's worth noting that with average selling prices and profitability indices yet to recover, if end-consumer demand falls short of expectations, the "expectation gap" could trigger a new round of price wars and inventory pressure.