The latest sentiment monitoring data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council's Circulation Branch sends a positive signal: in June 2026, the national textile and apparel professional market manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month; the merchant sentiment index crossed the 50 threshold to 50.07, rising 0.34 percentage points. Although the manager index remains below the 50 boom-bust line, the merchant index's return to expansion territory indicates improving activity at the retail end and a strengthening market bottom.
Footfall and Store Opening Rates Recover, Operating Environment Improves Marginally
Looking at sub-indices, the improvement in market operations is most evident. In June, the professional market footfall index and logistics dispatch volume index both recovered by 0.64 percentage points to 49.03; the store opening rate index rose 0.32 percentage points to 49.35. Although these indices remain slightly below 50, the upward slope suggests that with the arrival of the summer consumption season, offline channels are seeing a return of customer traffic. The rental index remained in a moderate expansion range at 50.65, indicating that market operators have stable expectations for subsequent rental income, with no widespread vacancy pressure leading to rent cuts.
Merchant-Side Volume-Price Divergence: Sales Recover but Profits Under Pressure
The structural divergence within the merchant sentiment index deserves attention. The sales volume index jumped 1.03 percentage points to 50.14, re-entering expansion territory, suggesting that a volume-for-price strategy achieved some success in June. However, the average selling price index fell 0.22 percentage points to 49.30, and the profitability index, despite recovering 0.89 percentage points to 49.86, still failed to break through the 50 mark. The combination of rising volumes and falling prices reflects the tug-of-war between destocking and consumption downgrading downstream buyers are increasingly price-sensitive, forcing merchants to compress profit margins to maintain cash flow turnover.
Cost Pressures Emerge, Inventory Reduction Shows Initial Results
Signals from the cost side are equally noteworthy. In June, the comprehensive cost index for merchants fell 0.19 percentage points to 50.63. While still above 50, indicating manageable cost pressures overall, the decline suggests a slight uptick compared to the previous month. The inventory index rose 0.21 percentage points to 50.00, exactly on the threshold, reflecting phased progress in destocking. The combination of a falling cost index and a rising inventory index means merchants are controlling restocking pace while facing marginal pressure from rigid expenditures such as raw materials and labor.
E-commerce Channels Act as Stabilizers
Among the June data, e-commerce sales performance stood out. The manager e-commerce sales index rose 0.64 percentage points to 51.61, and the merchant e-commerce sales index increased 0.35 percentage points to 50.49, both firmly in expansion territory. Notably, 22.58% of professional market managers reported an increase in e-commerce sales, a 6.45-percentage-point expansion from the previous month; 9.79% of merchants saw e-commerce sales growth, a 8.42-percentage-point increase. Online channels are becoming a critical buffer for professional market merchants to offset offline traffic fluctuations, especially for small and medium-sized merchants, where the penetration of livestreaming and community distribution continues to rise.
Forward-Looking Indices All Above 50, Confidence Repair Expected in July
Forward-looking indicators offer a more optimistic outlook. Managers' forecast for the next period's sentiment index is 50.32, and merchants' forecast is 50.84, up 0.70 percentage points from the current period. The two indices for the next period's business environment also remain high at 50.97 and 50.84. All four forward-looking indices are above 50, indicating that both market managers and merchants have high expectations for resilience in the traditionally slow month of July. However, it should be noted that high forecast indices are often influenced by base effects, and actual performance will depend on the extent to which high summer temperatures suppress end-consumer demand.