In the second week of July 2026, the textile raw material market did not continue the moderate recovery of previous weeks; instead, it exhibited sharper divergence among varieties. PTA surged 2.25% week-on-week, reaching 5,910 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. In contrast, acrylonitrile plunged 4.2%, dropping from 9,533 to 9,133 yuan/ton. Overall, the average weekly change for textile bulk commodities was -0.38%, with nine declining varieties far outnumbering four gainers, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Upstream Dynamics: PTA Strength vs. Acrylonitrile Crash
PTA's rise is not an isolated event. Its 21.8% year-on-year gain stems from upstream PX cost support and reduced supply due to plant maintenance. However, this strength has not been transmitted to downstream polyester filament: FDY fell 1.68%, DTY 1.28%, and POY 0.77%. This indicates that polyester margins are being squeezed, as fabric mills show limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials, purchasing only for immediate needs.
Acrylonitrile's sharp drop is more alarming. A 4.2% weekly decline is unusual for textile raw materials. Acrylonitrile is mainly used in acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber. Its rapid decline typically signals shrinking downstream demand or new capacity release. Given the subdued trading atmosphere in the acrylic market, the supply-demand balance for acrylonitrile has likely turned weak, and prices may face further downward pressure in the near term.
Midstream Products: Cotton Yarn Steady, Polyester and Nylon Under Pressure
Cotton yarn was among the few gainers this week. 32S cotton yarn rose 0.61%, and 21S edged up 0.28%, with year-on-year gains exceeding 7%. This contrasts with cotton lint, which fell 0.92% from 17,870 to 17,706 yuan/ton. The widening spread between cotton yarn and lint suggests improved margins for spinning mills, allowing them to digest high-cost cotton inventories. However, if cotton prices continue to weaken, the risk of a catch-up decline in cotton yarn will accumulate.
Polyester filament all declined, with FDY, DTY, and POY falling between 0.77% and 1.68%. This contrasts sharply with PTA's rise, confirming the structural imbalance in the polyester chain. Nylon varieties also weakened, with FDY, DTY, and POY dropping 0.31%, 0.38%, and 0.92%, respectively. Viscose staple fiber, spandex, and rayon yarn remained flat, indicating a weak equilibrium with no directional catalyst.
Implications for Procurement and Export
This week's data reveals several key signals. First, cost pass-through from upstream raw materials is blocked, enhancing the bargaining power of downstream weaving and dyeing sectors. Second, inventory pressure for polyester and nylon may be rising, especially for FDY and DTY. Third, the sharp drop in acrylonitrile suggests potential price revaluation for related products like acrylic fiber.
For exporters, raw material volatility directly impacts the stability of export quotations. PTA's strength may raise export costs for polyester fabrics, but if end-user demand does not cooperate, the room for price increases is limited, squeezing margins. The modest rise in cotton yarn has a limited impact on cotton fabric exports, but attention should be paid to Sino-US cotton price spreads and exchange rate fluctuations.