The June sentiment indices for China's textile and garment professional markets reveal a divergence between market managers and merchants. The manager sentiment index rose to 49.78, still below the 50 threshold, while the merchant sentiment index climbed to 50.07, re-entering expansion territory. This data combination suggests overall market activity is improving, but the profitability of micro-level operators has not improved in tandem.
Market Operations: Stable Volume, Structural Improvement
From aggregate indicators, the market operating volume index in June was flat month-on-month, while the logistics dispatch index edged up 0.64 points to 49.03. 77.42% of professional markets reported flat operating volumes, and the same proportion saw unchanged logistics dispatch, indicating a stable trading range without a significant surge.
Positive signals emerged in foot traffic and store opening rates. The foot traffic index rose 0.64 points, and the store opening rate index increased 0.32 points. More notably, the proportion of markets with declining foot traffic narrowed from 22.58% to 16.13%, while the share of markets with rising store opening rates jumped from 0% to 6.45%. These marginal improvements suggest a slow recovery in market vitality, with vacancy pressure easing. The rent index held at 50.65, with 93.55% of markets reporting stable rents, indicating no panic price cuts in the property segment.
Merchant Side: Sales Rebound Masks Profit Erosion
Although the merchant sentiment index recovered to 50.07, sub-indices reveal deep contradictions. The sales volume index rose 1.03 points to 50.14, indicating faster terminal turnover. However, the average selling price index fell 0.22 points to 49.30, and the profit index, despite rising 0.89 points, remained in contraction territory at 49.86.
This implies merchants are trading volume for price. 19.58% of merchants reported reduced profits, up 8.62 percentage points from the previous month; 18.88% saw lower selling prices, a sharp increase of 12.03 percentage points month-on-month. Meanwhile, the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 points to 50.63, reflecting rising cost pressure—6.99% of merchants experienced higher operating costs, up 6.99 percentage points from May. Profit margins are squeezed from both sides: falling prices and rigid costs.
On inventory, the inventory index rose 0.21 points to 50.00, with 10.49% of merchants reducing stock, up 8.44 percentage points. Inventory pressure eased, but this appears more a result of proactive price cuts to clear stock rather than robust demand.
E-commerce Channel: A Source of Stable Growth
Against the backdrop of traditional channel pressure, e-commerce sales emerged as a rare bright spot. The manager e-commerce sales index stood at 51.61, up 0.64 points; the merchant e-commerce sales index was 50.49, up 0.35 points. 22.58% of professional markets reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points; 9.79% of merchants saw e-commerce sales rise, up 8.42 percentage points.
The steady growth of e-commerce channels offers new incremental space for textile and garment professional markets. For buyers, this means the integration of online price comparison and offline experience is accelerating, making digital transformation of traditional wholesale markets a necessity rather than an option.
Forward-looking Indices: Confidence Repair but Lingering Concerns
All four forward-looking indices exceeded 50, indicating that both managers and merchants are optimistic about July operations. The manager forward-looking sentiment index was 50.32, while the merchant index was 50.84. However, the manager index fell 2.91 points from May, while the merchant index rose 0.70 points, showing a divergence in confidence. Managers may be more cautious about the macro environment, while merchants are more optimistic about short-term prospects based on June sales improvements.