In June, the textile and apparel professional market showed mild signs of recovery. According to monitoring data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council (CNTAC) Circulation Branch, the manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points from May, while the merchant sentiment index reached 50.07, up 0.34 percentage points. Although the manager index remained below the boom-bust line, the merchant index returned to expansion territory, suggesting that the market floor is gaining support.
Overall Business Flat, Structural Divergence Intensifies
On the manager side, the total business volume index remained flat month-on-month at 49.03, while logistics shipment, foot traffic, and store opening rate indices all edged up. 77.42% of professional markets reported stable total business volumes and logistics shipments. This indicates no significant volume surge, but marginal improvements are occurring. The merchant side showed more pronounced divergence: the sales volume index rose to 50.14, but the average selling price index fell to 49.30, down 0.22 percentage points from the previous month; the profit index was 49.86, up 0.89 percentage points but still below 50.
This 'volume up, price down' pattern reflects slow recovery in end-demand, yet merchants still lack pricing power. For buyers, this is a favorable window for negotiation, as merchants are often willing to concede on price to clear inventory and maintain cash flow.
Rising Cost Pressure, Easing Inventory Burden
The comprehensive cost index for merchants was 50.63, down 0.19 percentage points from last month, indicating increased cost pressure. 6.99% of merchants reported higher operating costs, up nearly 7 percentage points from the prior month. Meanwhile, the inventory index stood at 50.00, up 0.21 percentage points, with 10.49% of merchants reducing inventory. The simultaneous rise in costs and destocking suggests merchants are compressing profit margins to clear backlogs.
For upstream fabric and yarn suppliers, the easing of downstream inventory pressure is a positive signal. Once channel inventories return to healthy levels, restocking demand may be released in the third quarter. However, rising costs—particularly in labor, logistics, and some chemical fiber raw materials—could compress margins across the supply chain.
E-commerce as a Stabilizer, All Forecast Indices in Positive Territory
Notably, e-commerce sales indices performed well on both sides: the manager e-commerce index was 51.61, up 0.64 percentage points, and the merchant e-commerce index was 50.49, up 0.35 percentage points. 22.58% of professional markets saw increased e-commerce sales, a 6.45 percentage point improvement from the previous month. E-commerce is evolving from a supplementary channel into a 'second growth curve' for professional markets, especially for small and medium-sized merchants, where online order stability is offsetting offline foot traffic uncertainty.
Forecast indices all remained above 50: the manager outlook index was 50.32, the merchant outlook index was 50.84, and both business environment outlook indices were also above 50. This suggests that despite June's actual operational pressures, market participants hold cautiously optimistic expectations for July. Seasonal factors (summer garment replenishment, autumn/winter preparation) and sustained policy stimulus on consumption are likely the main supports for this confidence.