PTA Surges, Acrylonitrile Plunges: Textile Raw Material Market Divergence Intensifies, Downstream Procurement Strategies Need Recalibration

In the second week of July 2026, the textile raw material market presented a picture of extremes. PTA led with a 2.25% weekly gain, while acrylonitrile plummeted 4.20%, widening the price gap between them to nearly 3,000 yuan per ton. This extreme divergence is not accidental but the result of multiple forces including cost pressures, supply dynamics, and end-user demand.

Cost-Driven Divergence Among Varieties

PTA was the absolute leader of this rally, rising from 5,780.66 yuan/ton at the week's start to 5,910.50 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%. This trend is directly driven by fluctuating crude oil prices, with strong cost support from the PX segment. In contrast, polyester staple fiber rose only 0.95%, significantly less than PTA, indicating that margins in the staple fiber segment are being squeezed upstream, with processing spreads narrowing.

The overall weakness in polyester filament yarn reveals another logic. Polyester FDY fell 1.68%, DTY dropped 1.28%, and POY declined 0.77%. The contrast between falling filament prices and rising staple fiber prices suggests a shift in the downstream weaving order structure—stronger demand for staple fiber over filament, possibly reflecting a higher proportion of knitted fabrics in apparel or a recovery in demand for staple fiber yarn in home textiles.

The Industrial Signal of Acrylonitrile's Plunge

Acrylonitrile fell 4.20% in a single week, from 9,533.33 yuan/ton to 9,133.33 yuan/ton, the biggest decliner of the week. Although still up 15.61% year-on-year, the sharp short-term drop warrants attention. Downstream applications mainly include acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber precursor. Currently, acrylic fiber demand is weak, ABS industry operating rates are low, and supply has increased after the maintenance season for acrylonitrile plants ended, rapidly reversing the supply-demand balance. For acrylic yarn enterprises reliant on acrylonitrile, lower raw material costs should be a positive, but without a simultaneous recovery in end orders, it may not translate into profit improvement.

The Seesaw Effect Between Cotton and Chemical Fibers

Cotton yarn 32S rose 0.61%, and cotton yarn 21S rose 0.28%, modest but clear upward movements. In contrast, cotton lint prices edged down 0.92%, slightly widening the spread between cotton and cotton yarn, leading to marginal improvement in spinning margins. However, cotton yarn's year-on-year increase of only 7.22% is far below PTA's 21.80% and spandex's 21.09%, indicating that price transmission in the cotton textile chain is weaker than in chemical fibers.

Viscose staple fiber and spandex prices remained flat, and rayon yarn showed no movement, indicating a weak equilibrium in the regenerated cellulose fiber and elastic fiber markets. Spandex's year-on-year increase of 21.09% is high, but its weekly zero volatility suggests a temporary balance at high levels, with downstream buyers adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

Practical Impact on Procurement and Inventory Management

The current divergence in the raw material market poses direct challenges to textile companies' procurement decisions.

For Buyers - PTA and polyester staple fiber are likely to remain strong in the short term, but be cautious of crude oil pullback risks. Recommend demand-based procurement, avoid chasing highs, and consider buying on dips when PTA processing spreads narrow. - Acrylonitrile's sharp drop may trigger technical rebounds, but the fundamental supply-demand outlook is weak. Acrylic fiber-related procurement can maintain low inventory strategies and wait for price stabilization signals. - Cotton yarn prices are rising moderately, while cotton costs are relatively controllable. Cotton textile companies can moderately increase cotton yarn stockpiles, especially for regular varieties like 32S, to prepare for autumn orders.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - The decline in polyester filament prices benefits quotations for filament-based fabrics in export orders. Recommend shortening quotation validity periods to lock in raw material cost advantages. - Spandex prices are high and flat; quotations for elastic fabric orders need sufficient profit margins to avoid losses from raw material fluctuations. - Monitor the linked impact of RMB exchange rates and crude oil prices. Import cost volatility for petrochemical-based raw materials like PTA may increase; foreign trade contracts are advised to include price adjustment clauses.