June is typically an off-season for the textile and garment industry, but the latest sentiment monitoring data tells a different story. The national specialized market manager sentiment index for textile and garment rose to 49.78, while the merchant sentiment index climbed above the boom-or-bust line to 50.07, marking increases of 0.43 and 0.34 percentage points from the previous month, respectively. These figures suggest a slow recovery from the trough, but structural divergence is intensifying.
Market Side: Store Openings and Foot Traffic Recover, Rent Stabilizes
Looking at sub-indices from the manager perspective, the total business volume index remained flat at 49.03, indicating no significant expansion in overall revenue. However, logistics shipment volume, foot traffic, and store opening rates all rose simultaneously, by 0.64, 0.64, and 0.32 percentage points, respectively. This data points to a recovery in physical market activity—more stores are open, more buyers are visiting, and goods turnover is accelerating. The rent index also edged up 0.33 points to 50.65, showing that the market's property base remains stable without widespread vacancies or rent declines.
Notably, the e-commerce sales index reached 51.61, up 0.64 points from the previous month and consistently above the boom-or-bust line. This confirms that market managers are accelerating their integration of online matching and distribution capabilities alongside traditional offline channels. For buyers, this means more diversified sourcing channels through specialized markets.
Merchant Side: Sales Recovery Masks Profit Pressure
Unlike the relative optimism of market managers, frontline merchants face a more complex reality. Sub-index data from the merchant sentiment index shows that the sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 points month-over-month, serving as the main driver of the overall sentiment recovery. However, the average selling price index fell 0.22 points to 49.30, and the profitability index, despite rising 0.89 points, remained in contraction territory at 49.86.
This contradiction points to a core issue: sales volumes are increasing, but prices and profits are not keeping pace. The underlying reasons likely include heightened price sensitivity in the end-consumer market, forcing merchants to trade volume for price, and rising comprehensive costs from raw materials and labor. The cost index fell 0.19 points to 50.63, indicating marginally increasing cost pressure. The inventory index rose to 50.00, suggesting slight improvement in stock turnover, though destocking pressure persists.
From a proportional perspective, 18.18% of merchants reported declining sales, up 7.22 percentage points from the previous month; 19.58% saw profits shrink, an increase of 8.62 percentage points. This indicates that despite the overall upward trend in the sentiment index, nearly one-fifth of merchants are still experiencing contraction, highlighting significant market divergence.
E-commerce Channel: Growing Incremental Contribution
E-commerce sales stand out as a bright spot in this report. On the manager side, 22.58% of markets reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points month-over-month; on the merchant side, 9.79% saw growth, a rise of 8.42 percentage points. Both e-commerce sales indices are above 50, indicating that online channels are becoming an important supplement for merchants to secure orders.
For small and medium-sized enterprises in the textile and garment supply chain, the low barrier and wide reach of e-commerce offer opportunities to expand customer bases when traditional wholesale channels are slowing. However, the associated costs—traffic acquisition, platform commissions, and logistics—may further squeeze already thin margins.
Forecast Indices: Confidence Outpaces Reality, but Caution Warranted
Both managers and merchants hold forecast indices above 50 for July. The manager's next-period sentiment index stands at 50.32, and the merchant's next-period sentiment index at 50.84, with expectations for the business environment also improving. This suggests industry participants are optimistic about summer and autumn/winter stocking seasons, viewing the current downturn as a temporary adjustment.
However, the manager's next-period sentiment index dropped 2.91 percentage points month-over-month, a notable decline that signals wavering confidence among market operators. The gap between forecast indices and actual performance data may indicate that the pace of recovery in July will not be rapid.