PTA surged 2.25% in a single week to 5,910 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.80%. In stark contrast, acrylonitrile tumbled 4.20%, falling from 9,533 to 9,133 yuan per ton. The commodity price data for the 27th week of 2026 (July 6-10) reveals a raw material market that is diverging at an accelerating pace.
The Industrial Logic Behind the Swings
PTA's strength was not an isolated event. Polyester staple fiber followed with a 0.95% gain, while cotton yarn 32S and 21S inched up 0.61% and 0.28% respectively. However, polyester FDY, DTY, and POY all declined, with losses ranging from 0.77% to 1.68%. The supply chain displayed a classic pattern of "upstream rising, downstream falling."
Two key factors drove PTA's rally: persistently high international crude oil prices pushed up PX costs, forcing PTA producers to raise prices; and concentrated plant maintenance in the second quarter tightened supply. But downstream polyester mills are increasingly resistant to high-priced feedstock, as evidenced by the broad decline in polyester filament yarn prices, indicating that end-use weaving demand has not yet recovered.
Acrylonitrile's decline was the most striking. Behind the 4.20% weekly drop lies the continued release of new production capacity. Domestic acrylonitrile capacity entered a peak commissioning phase in 2025-2026, significantly loosening market supply. Meanwhile, downstream ABS resin demand has contracted due to weakness in the real estate and home appliance sectors, further transmitting the supply-demand imbalance to the raw material end.
Regional Impacts of Raw Material Divergence
The divergent price movements are having differentiated effects on regional industrial clusters. The polyester filament yarn clusters in Shengze and Changxing are facing a dual squeeze: rising PTA costs are increasing production expenses, while falling FDY and DTY prices make it difficult to pass on costs, compressing profit margins significantly.
In contrast, the cotton textile chain is relatively stable. Cotton yarn prices rose modestly, while raw cotton prices fell 0.92% weekly, slightly easing cost pressure for cotton mills. However, flat prices for viscose staple fiber and spandex, along with unchanged rayon yarn prices, indicate that competition from chemical fiber substitutes persists.
Fabric traders in the Keqiao market report that recent greige fabric orders are mostly small-lot, need-based purchases, with large orders lacking. Weaving mill operating rates remain around 60%. The divergent raw material trends complicate procurement decisions, and companies generally prefer to shorten inventory cycles and purchase on demand.
Profit Reallocation and Market Expectations
Year-on-year data shows that PTA (+21.80%), polyester POY (+16.15%), and acrylonitrile (+15.61%) still maintain substantial gains, but raw silk fell 10.07% year-on-year, making it the only declining variety. This indicates that the textile raw material market remains in a high-price range overall, but divergence among varieties is intensifying.
Profits are shifting from intermediate processing links to upstream raw material ends. Although PTA and acrylonitrile moved in opposite directions this week, both maintained year-on-year gains above 15%, reflecting strong pricing power at the raw material level. In contrast, intermediate products like polyester filament and nylon filament saw more moderate gains, suggesting limited price pass-through capacity downstream.
For foreign trade enterprises, this divergence means pricing strategies need greater granularity. Export quotations for PTA-related products can be moderately raised, while downstream products of acrylonitrile may gain export competitiveness due to lower raw material costs. Procurement windows for different categories are opening or closing, making timing crucial.