On the morning of July 13, 2026, the main ethylene glycol futures contract surged from nearly 4% to over 5% within 40 minutes, hitting an intraday high of 4,395 yuan/ton, a single-day gain of 200 yuan. Trading volume exceeded 11 billion yuan, with open interest increasing by 15,100 lots—a scale of capital inflow rarely seen in ethylene glycol futures trading.
Energy-Chemical Complex Strengthens Collectively
That day, the energy-chemical futures complex showed a broad rally. The main staple fiber contract rose 2% to 7,180 yuan/ton; bottle chip futures gained 2% to 6,950 yuan/ton; and paraxylene futures also expanded gains to 2%, reaching 7,952 yuan/ton. As a key raw material in the polyester chain, ethylene glycol price movements directly impact downstream products like staple fiber and bottle chip.
Sequentially, ethylene glycol led the rally, followed by staple fiber, bottle chip, and PX, reflecting a cost-push pattern. This linkage suggests that the ethylene glycol increase has not yet been fully absorbed downstream, leaving room for further gains in polyester products.
Industry Impact: From Futures to Spot
The sharp rise in ethylene glycol futures will quickly transmit to spot markets. For polyester mills, raw material costs rose about 5% in a single day, while downstream weaving mills typically lock prices weekly or monthly, squeezing profit margins instantly. Mills in concentrated polyester regions like Shengze and Changxing may face decisions on adjusting quotations.
For weaving and fabric buyers, higher ethylene glycol means stronger cost support for polyester filament and staple fiber. If the rally persists, previously locked long-term orders at lower prices may face default risks, and spot market quotes will rise rapidly. Textile Circle advises buyers with low inventories to accelerate restocking.
The Logic Behind
This ethylene glycol rally is not an isolated event. Fundamentally, domestic port inventories are at year-to-date lows, while downstream polyester operating rates remain above 85%, creating a tight supply-demand backdrop for speculative capital. Meanwhile, rising international oil prices have boosted the valuation of energy-chemical products.
However, a 5% single-day gain exceeds reasonable valuation ranges. The increase of 15,100 lots in open interest signals growing divergence between bulls and bears, with some institutions potentially hedging at high levels. Textile Circle believes short-term pullback risks exist, but the medium-term bullish pattern remains intact.