In June 2026, the national textile and garment professional market sentiment index showed a modest rebound, but the profit pressure on the merchant side did not ease simultaneously. According to monitoring data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council's Circulation Branch, the manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points from May; the merchant sentiment index was 50.07, up 0.34 percentage points. Both indices are approaching or have crossed the 50 boom-bust line, indicating a stabilization phase for the overall market, though structural divergence remains evident.
Market Operations: Foot Traffic and Store Opening Rates Recover
From the manager perspective, June saw positive changes in market operation indicators. The logistics shipment volume index and foot traffic index both rose by 0.64 percentage points to 49.03; the store opening rate index increased by 0.32 percentage points to 49.35. Although these indices remain below 50, the marginal improvement is clear. Notably, the proportion of markets with declining foot traffic narrowed from 22.58% in May to 16.13%, while the share of markets with rising store opening rates increased by 6.45 percentage points. This suggests a slow recovery in end-consumer scenarios and a reduction in market vacancy rates.
The rental index was 50.65, up 0.33 percentage points from the previous period, with 93.55% of markets reporting stable rents. Stable rent is a key anchor for market confidence—widespread rent reductions typically signal pessimism about the future. The current absence of large-scale rent cuts indicates that the underlying value of professional markets as distribution channels remains intact.
Merchant Side: Sales Recovery Fails to Offset Profit Decline
Compared to the manager side, merchant-side data is more complex. The sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 percentage points—a positive sign. However, the average selling price index was only 49.30, down 0.22 percentage points; the profitability index was 49.86, up 0.89 percentage points from the previous period but still below 50.
This pattern of "volume up, price down" reflects the core contradiction in the current textile and garment distribution chain: end demand is recovering, but intensified competition is putting pressure on prices. 19.58% of merchants reported reduced profits, an increase of 8.62 percentage points from May; 18.88% of merchants saw lower selling prices, a sharp rise of 12.03 percentage points from May. For buyers of fabrics and garments, this means a clear buyer's market in the short term, with potentially greater room for price negotiation.
The cost side is also concerning. The comprehensive cost index was 50.63, down 0.19 percentage points from the previous period. Although the index remains above 50, the directional change is noteworthy—6.99% of merchants saw cost increases, up 6.99 percentage points from May, indicating that some merchants are facing rising rent, labor, or raw material costs. The inventory index was 50.00, up 0.21 percentage points, suggesting a slight easing of inventory pressure, though destocking remains a priority for most merchants.
E-commerce Channel: Sentiment Index Continues to Improve
Among June's data, e-commerce sales were the only indicator to receive positive feedback from both managers and merchants. The manager e-commerce sales index was 51.61, up 0.64 percentage points; the merchant e-commerce sales index was 50.49, up 0.35 percentage points. 22.58% of professional markets reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from May; 9.79% of merchants saw higher e-commerce sales, up 8.42 percentage points.
This trend indicates that offline professional markets are accelerating their integration with online channels. For traditional wholesale merchants, e-commerce is no longer an optional supplement but a necessary means to maintain foot traffic and sales. Against the backdrop of downward pressure on average selling prices, the incremental volume from e-commerce channels has played a key role in sustaining overall sales.
Forecast Indices: Cautiously Optimistic for July
All four forward-looking indices were above 50. The manager forecast index for the next period was 50.32, and the merchant forecast index was 50.84, both in expansion territory. Merchants' confidence in the July operating environment is even higher than that of managers, possibly reflecting expectations related to the peak summer garment sales season.
However, the manager forecast index for the next period fell by 2.91 percentage points from May, and the manager operating environment forecast index dropped by 1.93 percentage points—significant declines. This may reflect market managers' concerns about macroeconomic uncertainties or a wait-and-see attitude towards the sustainability of policy stimulus effects.