On the morning of July 13, 2026, the main ethylene glycol futures contract surged over 5% intraday, reaching 4,395 CNY per ton. Open interest increased by 15,100 lots, and trading volume exceeded 11 billion CNY. This was not an isolated event: during the same session, PX futures rose 2% to 7,952 CNY/ton, staple fiber futures rose 2% to 7,180 CNY/ton, and bottle chip futures rose 2% to 6,950 CNY/ton. The synchronized rally across the energy-chemical complex has once again highlighted upstream cost pressures in the textile supply chain.
Background
The rally in ethylene glycol was characterized by rising volume and open interest, indicating directional long positioning rather than speculative noise. Port inventories in East China have fallen for three consecutive weeks to a five-year seasonal low. Meanwhile, international crude oil prices trended higher in early July, lifting feedstock costs for naphtha and ethylene, providing cost-side support for ethylene glycol.
Downstream polyester operating rates remain above 86%, sustaining demand for ethylene glycol. Although weaving orders have not yet surged, polyester mills have extended their raw material procurement cycles from 7-10 days to around 15 days, reflecting expectations of further price increases. The combination of cost-push and stable demand forms the core logic behind this rally.
Industry Impact
For the chemical fiber chain, the jump in ethylene glycol means the cost base for polyester chips, filament yarn, and staple fiber will shift upward. Based on the current move, polyester chip feedstock costs will increase by roughly 150-200 CNY per ton. If prices hold, polyester mills are expected to raise offers by 100-300 CNY per ton within a week.
For weaving and dyeing mills, the speed of cost pass-through depends on end-order absorption. The greige fabric market is in a traditional off-season, with weaving utilization at around 65% and manageable inventory. However, if fabric prices cannot keep pace with polyester hikes, weaving margins will be squeezed. Some small mills may reduce operating rates, which would in turn dampen demand for polyester filament—a short-term tug-of-war between rising costs and softening demand.
Exporters must watch the double squeeze from exchange rates and freight. Recent RMB volatility combined with high ocean freight costs means that if the full cost increase from ethylene glycol is passed into export quotes, Chinese textile products could lose price competitiveness against Southeast Asian rivals.