In June 2026, the national textile and apparel professional market sentiment index posted a modest recovery. The manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month, while the merchant sentiment index entered expansion territory at 50.07, rising 0.34 percentage points. These figures indicate improved market activity at the end of the first half, though the recovery remains moderate, with indices hovering near the boom-bust line.
Divergence in Market Operating Indicators
From the manager perspective, the total operating volume index remained flat at 49.03 month-on-month, suggesting no significant expansion in overall sales scale. However, logistics shipment, foot traffic, and store opening rate indices all improved, rising 0.64, 0.64, and 0.32 percentage points respectively, pointing to a recovery in people and goods movement. The rental index came in at 50.65, up 0.33 percentage points, indicating stable operating costs. Notably, the e-commerce sales index reached 51.61, up 0.64 percentage points, underscoring the deepening integration of online and offline channels as a source of incremental growth for professional markets.
Merchant-level performance presented a more nuanced picture. The sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 percentage points and back into expansion territory, reflecting improved terminal shipments. However, the average selling price index was only 49.30, down 0.22 percentage points and still below the boom-bust line, implying that merchants had to offer discounts to move goods, intensifying price competition. The profitability index was 49.86, up 0.89 percentage points but still below 50, indicating that most merchants did not achieve profit growth. The composite cost index was 50.63, down 0.19 percentage points, signaling a slight increase in cost pressure. The inventory index stood at 50.00, up 0.21 percentage points, suggesting some inventory relief but remaining neutral overall.
Persistent Profit Pressure and E-commerce as a Hedge
The most striking feature of June's data is the continued profit squeeze on merchants. The survey showed that 18.18% of merchants reported a decrease in sales volume, up 7.22 percentage points from the previous month; 19.58% reported lower profits, up 8.62 percentage points; and 18.88% reported falling selling prices, up 12.03 percentage points. The simultaneous rise in these three ratios indicates that while sales volumes are recovering, profitability is being compressed. This is driven by rigid cost increases—especially in raw materials and labor—and price sensitivity in the end market, forcing passive price reductions.
E-commerce sales have become a crucial hedge against offline pressure. In June, 22.58% of market managers reported an increase in e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points month-on-month, while 9.79% of merchants reported the same, up 8.42 percentage points. Both manager and merchant e-commerce sales indices have rebounded above the boom-bust line, indicating that more market participants are using online channels to clear inventory and reach customers. For buyers, this means offline bargaining room may narrow further, while online channels offer greater price transparency and easier comparison shopping.
Outlook Indicates Diverging Confidence
Looking ahead, managers' sentiment expectation for July was 50.32, down 2.91 percentage points month-on-month, and their business environment expectation was 50.97, down 1.93 percentage points. Merchants' sentiment expectation for July was 50.84, up 0.70 percentage points, and their business environment expectation was 50.84, up 0.77 percentage points. The decline in manager confidence may reflect concerns about the traditional summer off-season, while the slight uptick in merchant confidence suggests hope for continued improvement in shipments. All four forward-looking indices remain above 50, indicating overall market optimism, but the divergence between manager and merchant confidence warrants attention.
Industry Implications and Trends
From an industrial cluster perspective, the recovery was concentrated in 31 key professional markets, including Guangzhou Baima, Shandong Jimo, and Jiangsu Dieshiqiao, which cover categories such as apparel, fabrics, home textiles, and small commodities. Changes in these markets directly affect order flows for upstream fabric and yarn suppliers. The June data sends a clear signal: downstream wholesale volumes are recovering, but the risk of price pressure being passed upstream is growing. Fabric and yarn suppliers should be wary of further price concessions from clients while seizing opportunities from e-commerce channels for customized, small-batch orders.