On the morning of July 13, China's domestic futures market showed a mixed but generally positive performance in the textile raw material sector. The main staple fiber contract closed at 7,104 points, up 0.94%; cotton yarn settled at 22,535 points, up 0.56%; cotton reached 16,125 points, a slight gain of 0.44%. PTA also strengthened to 5,626 points, up 0.29%. The bottle-grade chip contract stood out, closing up 0.97% at 6,878 points.
This rebound comes after a period of consecutive declines, marking a technical correction. Over the past two weeks, driven by weak macro sentiment and sluggish downstream orders, products like staple fiber and cotton had probed short-term lows. The current gains, all within 1%, suggest that capital is still testing the waters, without forming a consensus for a trend reversal.
The tug-of-war between cost and demand
The synchronized rise of staple fiber and PTA first benefits from the stabilization of upstream PX and naphtha prices. After international oil prices found support around $70 per barrel, the fear of a cost collapse in the polyester chain temporarily subsided. The leading performance of bottle-grade chips is related to seasonal demand expectations from the summer beverage consumption peak.
However, the gains for cotton and cotton yarn were notably weaker. Cotton futures remain below the key level of 16,500 yuan per ton, reflecting dual concerns over expectations of a bountiful Xinjiang cotton harvest and destocking pressure on downstream textile mills. The mere 0.56% gain in cotton yarn indicates that profit margins in the spinning sector remain tight, and the operating rate of the fabric sector is recovering slowly.
Real reactions from industrial clusters
Feedback from major industrial clusters like Shengze and Keqiao shows that weaving enterprises are still purchasing raw materials on an as-needed basis, with no signs of large-scale restocking. Some small and medium-sized textile mills report that order lead times have shrunk to 7-10 days, and finished product inventories are above the warning line, making them cautious about raw material price increases.
This phenomenon means that the rebound in the futures market has not effectively transmitted to the spot market. The basis between spot and futures prices for staple fiber remains at 200-300 yuan per ton, indicating insufficient momentum for basis repair. PTA spot processing fees remain at low levels, and the operating rate of polyester plants hovers around 85%, without an unexpected increase.
Potential impact of policy and external variables
Notably, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System's recent estimate for the 2026/27 cotton planting area shows a slight year-on-year increase in Xinjiang, suggesting no supply gap overall. Meanwhile, the pace of issuing sliding-duty quota remains uncertain, and the price difference between imported and domestic cotton has narrowed to within 500 yuan per ton, making foreign cotton more competitive.
Additionally, repeated fluctuations in expectations of a Fed rate cut are disturbing commodity market sentiment. If the US dollar index strengthens again, the import costs of dollar-denominated cotton and polyester raw materials will come under pressure, potentially capping the rebound.
Short-term outlook and risk warnings
Overall, this morning's rebound is a sentiment-driven technical correction and lacks the driving force for sustained upward momentum. Support levels for staple fiber and PTA are at 7,000 points and 5,500 points, respectively; a break below these levels could abort the rebound. Cotton has strong buying interest around 16,000 yuan per ton, but a break above 16,500 requires downstream order support.
For textile enterprises, current raw material prices are at relatively low levels, but chasing the rally blindly is not advisable. It is recommended to adopt a phased price-locking strategy based on their own order cycles to control inventory exposure. Key focus should be on next week's polyester production and sales data and the change in weaving operating rates, which will be crucial indicators to verify whether demand is truly recovering.