The benchmark price of polyester staple fiber (PSF) stood at 7,332.23 yuan per ton on July 13, 2026, a figure that is neither a yearly low nor high but precisely at the median of the one-year price range. Based on the full-year statistics from July 2025 to July 2026, the price fluctuated between 6,267.17 yuan and 8,426.02 yuan, with the current level almost identical to the median value of 7,346.6 yuan—a mere 14.37 yuan difference. This data reveals a clear signal: the chemical fiber market is undergoing a typical 'median stalemate.'
Supply-Demand Logic Behind the Median Price
A price at the median indicates that the market lacks both strong bullish sentiment to drive an uptrend and panic selling to trigger a downturn. From the supply-demand perspective, the prices of major raw materials for PSF—PTA and MEG—have been fluctuating narrowly recently, providing no directional guidance from the cost side. Downstream yarn mills have adopted conservative procurement strategies, focusing on replenishing for immediate needs rather than building inventory. Meanwhile, the PSF industry has maintained a high operating rate, leading to continuous accumulation of social inventory. This combination of 'high operating rates, high inventory, and weak demand' is the root cause of the price's loss of volatility.
Notably, the current price is 1,093.79 yuan below the one-year high of 8,426.02 yuan, a drop of over 13%, and 1,065.06 yuan above the low of 6,267.17 yuan. This implies divergent acceptance of the current price along the industrial chain: upstream polyester plants aim to maintain profit margins, while downstream textile enterprises hope for lower prices to ease cost pressure.
Industrial Transmission: Profit Squeeze and Regional Divergence
From the perspective of profit distribution along the industrial chain, the 'median price' of PSF has not brought comfort to intermediate links. Weaving clusters represented by Keqiao and Shengze have recently reported declining operating rates and accumulating grey fabric inventory, with end-user orders dominated by short-term and small-lot transactions. This weak demand transmits upstream, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for PSF prices. Meanwhile, PSF producers in Fujian and Jiangsu face the dilemma of rigid raw material costs while product prices are hard to raise, squeezing processing profits to near break-even levels.
Regional divergence is also intensifying. The Nantong home textile cluster has relatively stable demand for PSF, but procurement volume has not increased year-on-year. In contrast, the Guangdong knitting cluster experiences larger order fluctuations and is more price-sensitive. This regional disparity means that a single price data point cannot fully reflect the overall situation, requiring buyers to tailor strategies based on their position in the industrial chain.
Price Outlook: Stalemate Unlikely to Break Soon; Focus on Cost and Policy Variables
Looking ahead, factors that could break PSF prices out of the current median range may come from two directions. First, on the raw material side, if international oil prices experience sharp volatility due to geopolitical events or OPEC+ policy changes, the impact will transmit directly to PX, PTA, and then to PSF costs. Second, on the demand side, the performance of the traditional peak season 'Golden September and Silver October' in the second half of the year is crucial. If terminal garment exports recover due to exchange rate or trade policy changes, it may drive up PSF demand.
Historically, median price ranges tend to persist for extended periods, and the market needs new catalysts to break the equilibrium. For industry participants, the risk of betting on unilateral price movements is high. A more pragmatic approach is to focus on inventory turnover and cash flow management.