In June 2026, China's textile and apparel professional markets experienced a subtle yet critical rebound in sentiment. The manager sentiment index rose from 49.35 in May to 49.78, while the merchant sentiment index climbed from 49.73 to 50.07, re-entering expansion territory after one month. This 0.34 percentage point uptick was driven by improvements in logistics, foot traffic, and e-commerce sales, yet it also exposed persistent weakness in merchant profitability and pricing power.
Structural Drivers of the Rebound
Disaggregated data reveals the recovery was not broad-based. The manager-level total business volume index remained flat at 49.03, indicating no expansion in overall transaction size. The real bright spots were the logistics dispatch volume index and foot traffic index, both rising 0.64 points to 49.03. While transaction values did not increase, physical market activity improved—goods are moving and people are visiting, often a precursor to peak season. The store opening rate index also rose 0.32 points to 49.35, and the rental index stabilized at 50.65, suggesting healthy occupancy and operational willingness.
More notably, the e-commerce sales index continued its upward trend. The manager e-commerce index rose from 50.97 to 51.61, and the merchant e-commerce index from 50.14 to 50.49, both firmly in expansion. This underscores that online channels are becoming a stable growth engine for market merchants, especially as traditional offline foot traffic recovers slowly.
Merchant Side: Volume Recovers, Profits Under Pressure
Compared to aggregate market indicators, merchant-level data better reflects real operational pressure. The sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 points month-over-month, indicating genuine demand recovery. However, the average selling price index fell from 49.52 to 49.30, and the profit index edged up from 48.97 to 49.86, still below the 50 threshold. This suggests merchants are engaging in "volume-for-price" tactics—selling more but earning less.
The comprehensive cost index declined 0.19 points to 50.63, still above 50 but trending downward, signaling rising cost pressure. The inventory index rose to 50.00, up 0.21 points, indicating slightly eased inventory burdens. Yet 18.18% of merchants reported decreased sales, 19.58% lower profits, and 18.88% lower selling prices—all proportions significantly higher than in May, highlighting growing divergence among merchants.
Outlook: Diverging Confidence Between Managers and Merchants
Looking ahead to July, confidence diverges between market managers and merchants. Managers' expectation index for the next period fell 2.91 points to 50.32, and their business environment outlook dropped 1.93 points to 50.97. In contrast, merchants' next-period sentiment index rose 0.70 points to 50.84, and their business environment outlook increased 0.77 points to 50.84. This divergence likely stems from managers' concerns about macro conditions and rental pressures, while merchants, closer to end demand, are more optimistic about seasonal order recovery.