The cotton textile industry chain is undergoing a clear off-season pressure transmission. According to the latest survey data from the China Cotton Textile Association, since July, from raw materials to yarns and fabrics, all links have seen order reductions, finished product inventory accumulation, and intensified price negotiations. This round of destocking is forcing companies to reassess procurement rhythms and capacity arrangements.
Raw Material Side: Three Varieties Diverge, Cost Support Logic Shifts
Cotton prices experienced a rise followed by a decline in July. Boosted by macro factors such as the US-Iran agreement, the Zhengzhou cotton futures主力合约 once surged to 16,140 yuan/ton. However, as market sentiment cooled and downstream demand weakened, prices quickly fell back to around 15,615 yuan/ton. Currently, the cotton market lacks unilateral drivers and is expected to maintain range-bound fluctuations. For spinning mills, this means shorter procurement windows and increased risk of chasing highs.
Polyester staple fiber prices fell sharply in line with international oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz shipping volume recovered to nearly 60% of pre-war levels, geopolitical risk premiums were fully unwound, and the cost side of the polyester chain collapsed. Staple fiber futures have fallen to around 6,900 yuan/ton. This change directly impacts the pricing system of polyester-containing yarns, with downstream purchasing sentiment turning cautious.
Viscose staple fiber is the only raw material showing a tight supply situation. Factory shipments are tight, traders are taking the opportunity to raise prices, but downstream yarn sales face pressure, and price transmission is not smooth. Viscose staple fiber prices may remain high in the short term, but room for further increases is limited.
Yarn Sector: Inventory Buildup, Fragmented Orders, Margins Continue to Narrow
The pure cotton yarn market continues its off-season pattern. Although mill quotes remain stable on the surface, actual transaction concessions are widespread, with the center of gravity moving lower. Finished product inventory is slowly accumulating, downstream weaving operating rates are declining, and grey fabric inventory pressure is transmitting to the yarn side. Autumn and winter orders have yet to materialize, and companies remain cautious about the outlook.
Differentiated yarn and colored spun yarn companies maintain full production, but order continuity is poor, dominated by small and scattered orders. Price competition is intense, and corporate profits are further shrinking. Vortex spun yarn lines also face weak volume and prices, with transactions slowing and production-sales barely balanced.
Polyester yarn prices fell due to raw material weakness, coupled with sluggish off-season demand, further cooling spot transactions. Downstream purchases are mainly for immediate needs, with orders not fully loaded, increasing product inventory pressure. Viscose yarn shows an inverted pattern where raw material prices rise while finished product prices fall, with weak yarn prices and slow transactions.
Fabric Side: Operating Rates Decline, Export Uncertainty Increases
The market for pure cotton grey fabrics is slowing down, with orders mainly for small-batch quick-response types. New orders are scarce, and finished product inventory is accumulating. Weaving mills are purchasing raw materials on an as-needed basis, with weak stocking willingness. The yarn-dyed fabric market is also slowing, with raw cotton prices down by about 300 yuan/ton, but cotton yarn prices struggling to hold firm, with high-count pure cotton yarn prices falling by 180 yuan/ton. Fabric product prices are loosening locally, with thin profit margins.
The denim industry faces dual pressure from domestic and foreign markets. In late June, the ex-factory price of 10s pure cotton OE yarn for denim remained narrowly fluctuating around 14,600 yuan/ton. However, downstream orders are shrinking, factory operating rates are falling, and finished product shipments are sluggish. Coupled with the strengthening US dollar index, the export environment is increasingly uncertain, and companies are closely tracking export trends.