In June 2026, China's textile and garment professional market sentiment index presented a diverging recovery: the manager index reached 49.78, up 0.43 points month-on-month, while the merchant index crossed the 50 threshold to 50.07, rising 0.34 points. These figures suggest not a simple rebound but a structural repair under persistent pressure—managers and merchants are experiencing distinctly different realities.
Market Operations: Flat Volume, Structural Shifts
From the manager perspective, the market turnover index remained unchanged at 49.03, and the logistics volume index edged up 0.64 points to 49.03, indicating no significant expansion in overall transaction scale. However, changes in foot traffic and store opening rates deserve more attention: the foot traffic index rose 0.64 points, and the store opening rate index increased 0.32 points, suggesting marginal improvements in market vitality. Notably, the rental index stayed above 50 for a second consecutive month at 50.65, reflecting that market operators still have pricing power and have not resorted to widespread rent reductions.
Merchant-side data painted a more complex picture. The sales volume index rebounded into expansion territory at 50.14, surging 1.03 points month-on-month, but the average selling price index dropped 0.22 points to 49.30. The profitability index rose 0.89 points but remained below 50. This implies merchants are selling more but earning less per unit—a price-volume scissors effect that directly erodes profit margins for fabric and garment distributors.
Merchant Pressure: Rising Costs Meet Falling Prices
Cost pressure on merchants became more pronounced in June. The comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 points to 50.63, still above the boom-bust line but weakening marginally, indicating accumulating cost burdens. Specifically, 6.99% of merchants reported increased operating costs, a share that surged 6.99 percentage points from the previous month—suggesting cost inflation is spreading from isolated cases to a broader phenomenon. Meanwhile, the inventory index rose 0.21 points to 50.00, signaling some relief in stock pressure, but likely achieved through discount-driven destocking.
Price weakness was particularly acute. 19.58% of merchants saw declining profits, up 8.62 percentage points from May; 18.88% reported lower selling prices, a 12.03 percentage point increase month-on-month. This widespread price decline resonates with volatility in upstream raw material costs such as chemical fibers and cotton yarn. For fabric traders and garment processors, poor price transmission at the terminal end suggests a need for more cautious procurement—better to order less than to accumulate loss-making inventory.
E-commerce: A Stabilizing Force
Amid overall pressure, e-commerce sales emerged as a rare bright spot. The manager e-commerce sales index stood at 51.61, up 0.64 points, while the merchant e-commerce index reached 50.49, rising 0.35 points. More telling is the structural shift: 22.58% of markets reported higher e-commerce sales, a 6.45 percentage point increase from May; 9.79% of merchants saw online sales growth, up 8.42 percentage points.
These data indicate that both market operators and individual merchants are accelerating their shift to online channels. For categories like home textiles and fabrics that traditionally rely on physical display, e-commerce growth signals a fundamental change in channel structure. Going forward, the core function of professional markets may evolve from "transaction venues" to "experience centers plus warehousing and distribution nodes."
Outlook: Confidence Rises but Divergence Risks Loom
Despite mixed June results, both managers and merchants hold optimistic expectations for July. The manager forward-looking index is 50.32, and the merchant forward-looking index is 50.84—all four predictive indicators exceed the 50 threshold. This confidence likely stems from: first, the seasonal peak of summer stocking; second, sustained e-commerce volume growth; and third, rental stability providing operational certainty.
However, risks remain significant. Persistently low average selling prices and profitability indices, combined with rising marginal costs, may force small and medium-sized merchants to exit or switch industries during the July-August off-season. For professional market operators, the key to H2 performance will be retaining quality tenants through rent reductions, e-commerce training, and joint procurement programs.