Data from the night session on July 13 reveals a clear signal: China's textile raw material futures market is undergoing a structural divergence. Polyester chain varieties (staple fiber, bottle-grade chips) posted slight gains, while cotton, cotton yarn, and PTA all weakened. This pattern of 'chemical fibers strong, cotton weak' is not short-term sentiment but the combined result of fundamentals and cost logic across the supply chain.
Polyester Chain: Cost Support and Demand Resilience
Staple fiber (PF) September 2025 contract settled at 7,120 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; bottle-grade chips September contract performed better, closing at 6,910 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.64%. The core driver for these gains is cost support from upstream raw materials. Although PTA fell slightly by 0.11% to 5,620 yuan/ton, PX (paraxylene) remained firm due to high international oil prices, preventing a significant downward shift in the overall cost center of the polyester chain.
On the demand side, downstream textile mills have been purchasing polyester staple fiber mainly for essential restocking, not large-scale hoarding. However, this 'not booming but not stopping' rhythm provides a floor for staple fiber prices. For bottle-grade chips, the summer beverage consumption peak season is boosting packaging demand, and plant order books are relatively full, with lower inventory pressure than cotton varieties.
What does this mean? For chemical fiber buyers, current PF and bottle-grade chip prices are in a relatively balanced state—lacking a strong upward catalyst but with cost support underneath. In the near term, polyester chain varieties are likely to maintain narrow-range consolidation, offering limited room for directional trading.
Cotton Chain: Dual Pressure from Inventory and Weak Consumption
In stark contrast to the polyester chain, cotton and cotton yarn both declined in the night session. Cotton September contract closed at 16,090 yuan/ton, down 0.22%; cotton yarn September contract settled at 22,515 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. Although the declines appear modest, combined with recent trends, cotton varieties have been under sustained pressure, with long-side confidence clearly lacking.
The core contradiction facing the cotton market is the ongoing tug-of-war between a loose supply outlook (high probability of global production increase in the new season) and sluggish demand recovery. Domestic textile mills have high cotton yarn inventories, and downstream weaving and garment factories are cautious in purchasing, making it difficult for cotton yarn prices to follow any upside. The 16,090 yuan/ton futures price is already approaching the processing cost line for some ginners, limiting further downside but also lacking a catalyst for a rebound.
Cotton yarn's weakness is more typical. The 22,515 yuan/ton closing price means spinning profit margins have been severely compressed. Some small and medium-sized spinning mills are being forced to cut production or switch to producing blended chemical fiber products. This structural 'cotton-to-chemical' shift is altering raw material demand patterns at the micro level, further suppressing cotton consumption.
PTA: The Squeezed Middle
The PTA September contract closed down 0.11% at 5,620 yuan/ton, its performance falling between the polyester chain and the cotton chain. PTA sits in the middle of the industrial chain, influenced simultaneously by upstream crude oil and PX costs and downstream polyester demand. Current PTA processing margins are at a moderately low level, and some high-cost plants have already scheduled maintenance. Unless crude oil prices collapse sharply, further downside for PTA is limited; but if downstream polyester sales remain persistently weak, PTA cannot escape the pressure.
Industry Impact and Transmission Channels
This divergence in futures prices is transmitting to the spot market:
- Cotton textile enterprises: facing a squeeze between raw material costs and finished product prices, they need to accelerate inventory turnover and avoid hoarding risks.
- Chemical fiber enterprises: stable staple fiber and bottle-grade chip prices help maintain production profits, but they must monitor PTA volatility.
- Weaving and garment factories: with cotton yarn prices weakening, they can increase bargaining power for cotton product purchases; for chemical fiber raw materials, procurement on an as-needed basis is sufficient.
Practical Recommendations
For Purchasing Departments - Cotton and cotton yarn: current prices are near a temporary bottom, but the timing for a rebound is not yet ripe. Maintain a low inventory strategy; consider small-lot point-price locking on dips, but avoid chasing highs. - Staple fiber and bottle-grade chips: price ranges are clear. Set purchase orders near 7,120 yuan/ton (PF) and 6,910 yuan/ton (bottle-grade chips) to reduce procurement costs within the oscillation range.
For Foreign Trade Companies - When quoting export orders, calculate cotton product costs based on the 16,000-16,200 yuan/ton cotton cost range, leaving room for downside price risk. - Shorten the quotation cycle for chemical fiber products (e.g., from monthly to bi-weekly) to better cope with potential sudden raw material price fluctuations.
The Texcircle editorial team will continue to track night and day session trends, providing timely and objective market analysis for the industry.