The night trading session on July 13 revealed a notable divergence between staple fiber and cotton. Staple fiber's main contract rose 0.23% to 7,120 yuan, while cotton fell 0.22% to 16,090 yuan, and cotton yarn edged down 0.09% to 22,515 yuan. Bottle-grade chips posted the largest gain at 0.64%, while PTA slipped 0.11%.
The Battle Between Raw Materials and Demand
The opposite movement of staple fiber and cotton reflects a short-term mismatch between upstream cost logic and downstream demand logic. Cotton, as a natural fiber raw material, is influenced by global supply-demand dynamics, weather, and policy. Its closing price of 16,090 yuan is near the lowest levels in three months. Cotton yarn followed the decline but with a smaller magnitude, indicating that cost pressure in spinning is gradually transmitting to weaving, though not at a rapid pace.
The rise in staple fiber relies more on cost support. With PTA falling only marginally and bottle-grade chips rising sharply, the polyester chain shows clear variety rotation. Staple fiber, as an intermediate product, has greater price elasticity. When PTA costs stabilize and downstream restocking begins, it can gain short-term upward momentum.
Inventory Cycles and Order Rhythms
From an industry perspective, inventory levels across the textile chain are uneven. Cotton commercial inventories remain high, but import quotas are tight, leading some mills to favor domestic cotton, which provides support to the futures market. Cotton yarn inventories have accumulated due to sluggish summer orders, putting pressure on prices.
For staple fiber, polyester staple fiber factory inventories have been destocking faster, with some specifications even experiencing tight supply. This explains the relatively strong performance in night trading. Bottle-grade chips rose the most, directly linked to seasonal restocking for the soft drink packaging peak season.
The slight decline in PTA suggests that market expectations for ample PX supply persist, coupled with the resumption of production after maintenance at some plants, making a trend reversal unlikely in the short term.
Transmission Mechanisms and Price Expectations
The narrowing price spread between cotton and polyester directly affects downstream fabric mills' raw material mix decisions. As cotton weakens and staple fiber strengthens, the cotton-polyester spread is compressing. This may prompt some blended fabric mills to adjust procurement ratios and increase polyester usage. For orders requiring pure cotton, cost pressure is relatively relieved.
Looking at longer cycles, current price signals do not indicate a clear trend direction. Cotton is fluctuating around the 16,000 yuan level. If it breaks below this support, it may trigger concentrated point-price purchases downstream, forming a new bottom. If staple fiber can hold above 7,100 yuan, it may open upward room, but this depends on whether PTA can follow suit.